Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 12:00 PM ET
Milan Puskar Stadium · 72° · wind 6 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Arizona–West Virginia) | 33–27 | 31–29 | – |
| Spread | Arizona −6.6 | Arizona −2.5 | Arizona −3 |
| Total | 60.2 | 60.1 | 61.5 |
| West Virginia win chance | 34% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Arizona −3 ★ Under 61.5
Spread: 3.6 pts better than Vegas for Arizona (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 1.3 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ West Virginia +3 ☆ Under 61.5
Spread: 0.5 pts better than Vegas for West Virginia. Total: 1.4 pts below Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Arizona by 6.632%
Arizona by 14+
33%
Arizona by 1–13
24%
West Virginia by 1–13
10%
West Virginia by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Arizona | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.066 #33 | Offense EPA / play | +0.046 #43 |
| −0.019 #43 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.158 #118 |
| +3.2% #28 | Offense success rate | −0.4% #62 |
| −2.0% #27 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.5% #116 |
| +0.020 #54 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.064 #35 |
| +0.086 #38 | Passing EPA / play | +0.057 #46 |
| −0.015 #38 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.028 #56 |
| −0.007 #46 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.236 #128 |
| +2.5 #45 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.6 #34 |
| −3.4 #30 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.0 #104 |
| Situational | ||
| +6.3% #14 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.5% #28 |
| +4.5% #98 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.0% #92 |
| +0.31 #47 | Points per drive | +0.24 #54 |
| +0.19 #44 | Points per drive allowed | +0.73 #81 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.11 #31 | Line yards per rush | −0.04 #57 |
| −0.14 #30 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.01 #52 |
| −1.3% #39 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.5% #53 |
| +2.8% #21 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.1% #30 |
| −1.6% #36 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.0% #45 |
| +1.0% #42 | Havoc created | −1.2% #81 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.081 #103 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.104 #28 |
| −0.023 #86 | Passing explosiveness | +0.559 #1 |
| −0.35 #98 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.30 #25 |
| +0.123 #120 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.121 #33 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 46% #127 | Run rate | 68% #5 |
| −9.1 #69 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −8.4 #65 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Arizona | Season to date | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 5-0 |
| 32.4 / 16.6 | Points for / against | 37.4 / 28.8 |
| +15.8 | Avg margin | +8.6 |
| -0.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.5 |
| 59.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.2 |
Arizona: last 5 games
| W34-7 | |
| W34-24 | |
| W42-17 | |
| L17-28 | |
| W35-7 |
West Virginia: last 5 games
| L42-45 | |
| L24-41 | |
| W38-27 | |
| W52-7 | |
| W31-24 |
