Final
Sat, Sep 26, 4:00 PM ET
Allen E. Paulson Stadium · 76° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Houston–GASO) | 34–21 | – | 42–28 |
| Spread | Houston −12.6 | Houston −17.5 | Houston −14 |
| Total | 55.1 | 56.5 | 70 |
| Georgia Southern win chance | 22% | – | – |
Line moved from Houston −19.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ GASO +17.5 Won★ Under 56.5 Lost
Spread: 4.9 pts better than Vegas for Georgia Southern (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 1.4 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Houston by 12.646%
Houston by 14+
32%
Houston by 1–13
17%
Georgia Southern by 1–13
5%
Georgia Southern by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Houston | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.119 #20 | Offense EPA / play | −0.058 #86 |
| −0.010 #42 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.066 #80 |
| +7.5% #9 | Offense success rate | −1.9% #79 |
| +2.5% #74 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.3% #49 |
| +0.043 #36 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.077 #95 |
| +0.175 #20 | Passing EPA / play | −0.033 #79 |
| +0.006 #54 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.066 #82 |
| −0.012 #53 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.031 #65 |
| +6.7 #19 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.3 #104 |
| −1.2 #45 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.8 #79 |
| Situational | ||
| +10.5% #3 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.5% #73 |
| +2.6% #85 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.2% #50 |
| +1.27 #16 | Points per drive | −0.81 #105 |
| +0.23 #44 | Points per drive allowed | +0.58 #75 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.17 #18 | Line yards per rush | −0.02 #54 |
| −0.13 #32 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.09 #40 |
| −0.1% #58 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.5% #38 |
| +0.1% #55 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.4% #19 |
| −3.1% #11 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.9% #103 |
| +2.0% #20 | Havoc created | +1.6% #26 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.164 #126 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.181 #134 |
| +0.030 #62 | Passing explosiveness | −0.218 #131 |
| −0.14 #69 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.29 #93 |
| −0.119 #33 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.221 #9 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #35 | Run rate | 42% #133 |
| −14.1 #89 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −13.9 #88 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Houston | Season to date | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 41.0 / 19.8 | Points for / against | 24.8 / 23.8 |
| +21.2 | Avg margin | +1.0 |
| +2.6 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.1 |
| 64.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.0 |
Houston: last 3 games
| L26-28 | |
| W77-6 | |
| W33-20 |
Georgia Southern: last 3 games
| L27-31 | |
| L7-22 | |
| W31-0 |
