Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium · 82° · wind 10 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Texas A&M–Missouri) | 23–26 | 18–34 | – |
| Spread | Missouri −2.9 | Missouri −15.8 | Missouri −3.5 |
| Total | 49.1 | 52.6 | 48.5 |
| Missouri win chance | 57% | – | – |
Line moved from Missouri −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Texas A&M +3.5 ★ Over 48.5
Spread: 0.6 pts better than Vegas for Texas A&M (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.6 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Missouri −3.5 ☆ Over 48.5
Spread: 12.3 pts better than Vegas for Missouri. Total: 4.1 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Missouri by 2.914%
Texas A&M by 14+
29%
Texas A&M by 1–13
33%
Missouri by 1–13
24%
Missouri by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Texas A&M | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.030 #52 | Offense EPA / play | +0.097 #24 |
| −0.039 #32 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.127 #8 |
| +2.2% #39 | Offense success rate | +2.2% #38 |
| −3.3% #18 | Defense success rate allowed | −6.9% #6 |
| +0.035 #47 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.005 #61 |
| +0.042 #52 | Passing EPA / play | +0.207 #13 |
| −0.146 #11 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.191 #4 |
| +0.083 #84 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.071 #27 |
| +5.5 #28 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +5.7 #26 |
| −7.4 #11 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −5.9 #18 |
| Situational | ||
| +2.6% #39 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +3.0% #36 |
| −4.6% #12 | Passing-down success allowed | −4.4% #15 |
| +0.73 #24 | Points per drive | +0.60 #30 |
| −0.66 #8 | Points per drive allowed | −0.48 #14 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.17 #24 | Line yards per rush | −0.02 #52 |
| −0.21 #22 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.68 #5 |
| −1.5% #35 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.2% #61 |
| +2.1% #28 | Opponent runs stuffed | +7.4% #4 |
| −2.0% #29 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.0% #68 |
| +2.3% #22 | Havoc created | +5.5% #4 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.022 #78 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.076 #102 |
| −0.093 #110 | Passing explosiveness | +0.083 #37 |
| −0.14 #73 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.13 #37 |
| +0.138 #122 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.089 #112 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #43 | Run rate | 54% #39 |
| +1.0 #14 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −4.7 #40 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Texas A&M | Season to date | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-2 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 3-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 31.8 / 18.6 | Points for / against | 37.6 / 20.0 |
| +13.2 | Avg margin | +17.6 |
| -1.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.2 |
| 62.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.8 |
Texas A&M: last 5 games
| W34-7 | |
| L6-35 | |
| L21-31 | |
| W48-20 | |
| W50-0 |
Missouri: last 5 games
| W45-17 | |
| L24-31 | |
| W27-17 | |
| W38-21 | |
| W54-14 |
