Final
Tue, Oct 6, 8:00 PM ET
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · 71° · wind 6 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Southern Miss–Troy) | 23–25 | 16–32 | – | 34–55 |
| Spread | Troy −2.6 | Troy −15.6 | Troy −9.5 | Troy −21 |
| Total | 48.0 | 48.0 | 51.5 | 89 |
| Troy win chance | 57% | – | – | – |
Line moved from Troy −8.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Southern Miss +9.5 Lost★ Under 51.5 Lost
Spread: 6.9 pts better than Vegas for Southern Miss (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.5 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Troy −9.5 Won☆ Under 51.5 Lost
Spread: 6.1 pts better than Vegas for Troy. Total: 3.5 pts below Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Troy by 2.615%
Southern Miss by 14+
29%
Southern Miss by 1–13
33%
Troy by 1–13
24%
Troy by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Southern Miss | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.118 #113 | Offense EPA / play | −0.115 #112 |
| +0.090 #83 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.078 #78 |
| −4.2% #97 | Offense success rate | −5.5% #109 |
| +3.5% #84 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.3% #71 |
| −0.036 #78 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.082 #98 |
| −0.186 #116 | Passing EPA / play | −0.119 #96 |
| +0.149 #116 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.043 #65 |
| +0.089 #86 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.016 #61 |
| −6.5 #98 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −7.8 #106 |
| +7.7 #112 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +3.4 #82 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.4% #112 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.3% #99 |
| +6.0% #112 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.5% #50 |
| −0.50 #89 | Points per drive | −1.21 #120 |
| +1.27 #110 | Points per drive allowed | +0.67 #77 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.03 #47 | Line yards per rush | −0.35 #108 |
| +0.31 #105 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.03 #46 |
| −2.4% #27 | Runs stuffed at the line | +4.9% #121 |
| −2.5% #95 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.5% #36 |
| +1.6% #107 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +3.6% #128 |
| −3.7% #123 | Havoc created | −1.0% #73 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.160 #125 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.002 #69 |
| −0.047 #92 | Passing explosiveness | +0.115 #29 |
| −0.71 #130 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.20 #80 |
| +0.038 #96 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.026 #70 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 47% #116 | Run rate | 51% #79 |
| −12.2 #96 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −11.1 #90 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Southern Miss | Season to date | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 26.4 / 34.6 | Points for / against | 28.0 / 24.0 |
| -8.2 | Avg margin | +4.0 |
| +0.3 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.2 |
| 57.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 74.6 |
Southern Miss: last 4 games
| L21-24 | |
| L20-48 | |
| L8-43 | |
| W49-3 |
Troy: last 4 games
| L10-21 | |
| L17-27 | |
| W34-17 | |
| W24-21 |
