Beaver projection
Thu, Oct 8, 7:00 PM ET
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium · 70° · wind 6 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Missouri State–WKU) | 23–27 | 30–27 | – |
| Spread | WKU −4.0 | Missouri State −2.0 | WKU −2.5 |
| Total | 50.9 | 57.0 | 56.5 |
| Western Kentucky win chance | 60% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ WKU −2.5 ★ Under 56.5
Spread: 1.5 pts better than Vegas for Western Kentucky (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.6 pts below Vegas (50% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Missouri State +2.5 ☆ Over 56.5
Spread: 4.5 pts better than Vegas for Missouri State. Total: 0.5 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around WKU by 4.013%
Missouri State by 14+
27%
Missouri State by 1–13
33%
Western Kentucky by 1–13
26%
Western Kentucky by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Missouri State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.119 #114 | Offense EPA / play | −0.191 #127 |
| +0.146 #109 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.185 #126 |
| −5.6% #112 | Offense success rate | −6.0% #115 |
| +8.4% #127 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.9% #96 |
| −0.106 #108 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.198 #127 |
| −0.128 #102 | Passing EPA / play | −0.191 #118 |
| +0.101 #97 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.209 #133 |
| +0.164 #109 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.076 #82 |
| −7.0 #103 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.1 #109 |
| +10.1 #126 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +11.8 #130 |
| Situational | ||
| −10.9% #134 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.5% #78 |
| +6.6% #116 | Passing-down success allowed | +9.3% #131 |
| −0.54 #92 | Points per drive | −0.52 #90 |
| +1.73 #128 | Points per drive allowed | +2.06 #135 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.23 #93 | Line yards per rush | −0.67 #131 |
| +0.29 #99 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.48 #122 |
| +0.5% #66 | Runs stuffed at the line | +7.8% #133 |
| −3.6% #108 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.5% #119 |
| +3.3% #126 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.4% #97 |
| −2.2% #103 | Havoc created | −3.8% #125 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.106 #110 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.140 #119 |
| −0.010 #80 | Passing explosiveness | +0.024 #62 |
| −0.42 #107 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.72 #134 |
| −0.004 #79 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.074 #108 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% #92 | Run rate | 46% #124 |
| −10.3 #84 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −7.0 #53 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Missouri State | Season to date | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 1-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-4 |
| 2-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 24.0 / 32.0 | Points for / against | 19.8 / 39.6 |
| -8.0 | Avg margin | -19.8 |
| +6.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -10.7 |
| 48.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 52.2 |
Missouri State: last 4 games
| L24-34 | |
| L24-30 | |
| W48-14 | |
| L0-50 |
Western Kentucky: last 5 games
| L13-34 | |
| W52-7 | |
| L0-38 | |
| L20-70 | |
| L14-49 |
