Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 7:30 PM ET
Joe Aillet Stadium · 69° · wind 8 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Louisiana–Louisiana Tech) | 26–25 | 25–29 | – |
| Spread | Louisiana −0.6 | Louisiana Tech −3.4 | Louisiana Tech −3 |
| Total | 50.4 | 53.6 | 47.5 |
| Louisiana Tech win chance | 48% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Louisiana +3 ★ Over 47.5
Spread: 3.6 pts better than Vegas for Louisiana (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 2.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Louisiana Tech −3 ☆ Over 47.5
Spread: 0.4 pts better than Vegas for Louisiana Tech. Total: 6.1 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Louisiana by 0.620%
Louisiana by 14+
32%
Louisiana by 1–13
31%
Louisiana Tech by 1–13
18%
Louisiana Tech by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Louisiana | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.085 #96 | Offense EPA / play | −0.054 #83 |
| −0.027 #38 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.032 #61 |
| −5.1% #107 | Offense success rate | −4.9% #103 |
| +2.6% #75 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.0% #49 |
| +0.002 #62 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.061 #88 |
| −0.110 #93 | Passing EPA / play | −0.028 #73 |
| −0.147 #10 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.070 #80 |
| +0.096 #87 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.014 #44 |
| −4.6 #88 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.8 #61 |
| +3.2 #81 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.7 #96 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.7% #94 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.6% #82 |
| +1.6% #83 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.4% #56 |
| −0.85 #101 | Points per drive | +0.49 #36 |
| +0.62 #75 | Points per drive allowed | +0.76 #84 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.23 #91 | Line yards per rush | −0.45 #120 |
| +0.12 #71 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.10 #36 |
| +1.9% #84 | Runs stuffed at the line | +6.2% #126 |
| +2.6% #25 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.4% #38 |
| +1.3% #95 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.4% #98 |
| +0.4% #48 | Havoc created | +4.1% #9 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.120 #19 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.151 #123 |
| −0.236 #133 | Passing explosiveness | +0.224 #11 |
| −0.19 #77 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.31 #22 |
| −0.129 #31 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.025 #71 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 60% #10 | Run rate | 54% #41 |
| −15.2 #113 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −9.4 #75 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Louisiana | Season to date | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-1-1 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 4-0 |
| 29.2 / 19.4 | Points for / against | 36.0 / 29.0 |
| +9.8 | Avg margin | +7.0 |
| +7.6 | Avg vs. the spread | +9.2 |
| 62.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 49.8 |
Louisiana: last 5 games
| W23-20 | |
| W34-7 | |
| W21-14 | |
| L30-49 | |
| W38-7 |
Louisiana Tech: last 4 games
| W31-29 | |
| L19-36 | |
| L14-45 | |
| W80-6 |
