Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET
Bridgeforth Stadium · 62° · wind 17 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Georgia State–James Madison) | 24–36 | – |
| Spread | James Madison −11.8 | No line |
| Total | 59.7 | n/a |
| James Madison win chance | 77% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around James Madison by 11.86%
Georgia State by 14+
18%
Georgia State by 1–13
32%
James Madison by 1–13
45%
James Madison by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Georgia State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.029 #51 | Offense EPA / play | +0.032 #48 |
| +0.092 #84 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.027 #60 |
| +1.1% #49 | Offense success rate | −0.5% #63 |
| +3.4% #81 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.4% #57 |
| −0.009 #68 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.066 #33 |
| +0.205 #13 | Passing EPA / play | −0.002 #63 |
| +0.149 #117 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.035 #60 |
| −0.002 #52 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.001 #53 |
| +2.3 #49 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +6.0 #22 |
| +5.8 #97 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.2 #53 |
| Situational | ||
| +7.6% #8 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.7% #47 |
| +1.3% #73 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.3% #94 |
| +0.10 #61 | Points per drive | +0.66 #27 |
| +1.07 #103 | Points per drive allowed | +0.48 #65 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.06 #41 | Line yards per rush | −0.11 #72 |
| +0.32 #107 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.17 #78 |
| +1.8% #83 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.4% #65 |
| −0.1% #55 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.3% #117 |
| −1.8% #33 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.3% #24 |
| +0.3% #52 | Havoc created | −1.5% #87 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.072 #36 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.040 #51 |
| +0.233 #9 | Passing explosiveness | −0.065 #98 |
| +0.10 #39 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.52 #11 |
| +0.014 #90 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.010 #89 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #55 | Run rate | 54% #50 |
| −17.1 #119 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −20.4 #135 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Georgia State | Season to date | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 5-0 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 2-0 |
| 5-0 | Against the spread | 5-0 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 39.4 / 19.0 | Points for / against | 44.8 / 13.2 |
| +20.4 | Avg margin | +31.6 |
| +17.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +17.4 |
| 59.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.2 |
Georgia State: last 5 games
| W42-10 | |
| W35-14 | |
| L30-44 | |
| W31-17 | |
| W59-10 |
James Madison: last 5 games
| W45-17 | |
| W46-20 | |
| W26-13 | |
| W87-3 | |
| W20-13 |
