Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 7:00 PM ET
Joan C. Edwards Stadium · 55° · wind 12 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (CCU–Marshall) | 26–29 | 24–28 | – |
| Spread | Marshall −2.9 | Marshall −4.4 | Marshall −3 |
| Total | 54.8 | 51.6 | 58.5 |
| Marshall win chance | 57% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ CCU +3 ★ Under 58.5
Spread: 0.1 pts better than Vegas for Coastal Carolina (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.7 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Marshall −3 ☆ Under 58.5
Spread: 1.4 pts better than Vegas for Marshall. Total: 6.9 pts below Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Marshall by 2.915%
Coastal Carolina by 14+
28%
Coastal Carolina by 1–13
33%
Marshall by 1–13
24%
Marshall by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| CCU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.099 #104 | Offense EPA / play | +0.005 #62 |
| +0.130 #105 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.311 #138 |
| −6.1% #116 | Offense success rate | −1.1% #74 |
| +7.1% #119 | Defense success rate allowed | +10.6% #136 |
| −0.086 #100 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.121 #113 |
| −0.152 #108 | Passing EPA / play | +0.115 #34 |
| +0.061 #77 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.135 #111 |
| +0.323 #134 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.437 #138 |
| −8.4 #112 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.5 #100 |
| +7.4 #108 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +12.0 #131 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.2% #75 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.6% #101 |
| −0.7% #47 | Passing-down success allowed | +7.4% #123 |
| −1.31 #124 | Points per drive | −1.16 #117 |
| +0.94 #97 | Points per drive allowed | +1.70 #125 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.04 #44 | Line yards per rush | −0.07 #59 |
| +0.38 #116 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.71 #137 |
| −0.2% #62 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.6% #81 |
| −3.9% #112 | Opponent runs stuffed | −7.5% #136 |
| +4.2% #133 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.5% #80 |
| −3.4% #119 | Havoc created | −4.8% #134 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.110 #112 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.201 #132 |
| +0.335 #2 | Passing explosiveness | +0.005 #70 |
| −0.36 #100 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.45 #112 |
| −0.098 #41 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.223 #134 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #108 | Run rate | 50% #85 |
| −15.0 #112 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.2 #82 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| CCU | Season to date | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 1-2 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 24.8 / 25.0 | Points for / against | 22.2 / 35.0 |
| -0.2 | Avg margin | -12.8 |
| -1.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -13.2 |
| 62.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.8 |
Coastal Carolina: last 5 games
| L24-31 | |
| L17-34 | |
| L14-22 | |
| W45-7 | |
| L24-31 |
Marshall: last 5 games
| L17-45 | |
| W36-35 | |
| W30-24 | |
| W28-26 | |
| L0-45 |
