Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 1:30 PM ET
Kelly/Shorts Stadium · 59° · wind 17 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (WMU–CMU) | 24–16 | – |
| Spread | WMU −8.3 | No line |
| Total | 40.6 | n/a |
| Central Michigan win chance | 30% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around WMU by 8.336%
Western Michigan by 14+
35%
Western Michigan by 1–13
22%
Central Michigan by 1–13
7%
Central Michigan by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| WMU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.055 #87 | Offense EPA / play | −0.098 #109 |
| +0.054 #78 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.143 #120 |
| −0.1% #72 | Offense success rate | −5.7% #122 |
| +4.1% #104 | Defense success rate allowed | +5.5% #119 |
| +0.019 #78 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.111 #34 |
| −0.129 #96 | Passing EPA / play | −0.372 #138 |
| +0.050 #84 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.144 #122 |
| +0.062 #76 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.061 #75 |
| −7.8 #108 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −10.1 #126 |
| −2.3 #44 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +3.9 #89 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.8% #106 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −7.5% #116 |
| +5.4% #117 | Passing-down success allowed | +7.1% #127 |
| −0.75 #97 | Points per drive | −1.10 #115 |
| +0.19 #74 | Points per drive allowed | +1.02 #116 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.08 #104 | Line yards per rush | +0.23 #50 |
| +0.16 #93 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.47 #132 |
| −1.6% #74 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.9% #41 |
| −2.5% #106 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.8% #111 |
| −2.9% #37 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.8% #38 |
| −3.1% #119 | Havoc created | −1.2% #80 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.041 #97 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.197 #6 |
| −0.198 #137 | Passing explosiveness | −0.199 #138 |
| −0.60 #126 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.14 #71 |
| −0.063 #40 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.144 #16 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 65% #8 | Run rate | 72% #6 |
| −10.8 #94 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −6.8 #59 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| WMU | Season to date | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 2-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 23.2 / 19.4 | Points for / against | 17.6 / 25.4 |
| +3.8 | Avg margin | -7.8 |
| +0.7 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.9 |
| 54.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 46.6 |
Western Michigan: last 5 games
| W20-17 | |
| L7-32 | |
| W28-21 | |
| W49-14 | |
| L12-13 |
Central Michigan: last 5 games
| W41-17 | |
| L3-52 | |
| W24-10 | |
| W13-10 | |
| L7-38 |
