Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 2:00 PM ET
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · 66° · wind 4 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Miami (OH)–Massachusetts) | 31–23 | 22–31 | – |
| Spread | Miami (OH) −7.7 | Massachusetts −9.5 | Miami (OH) −2.5 |
| Total | 54.2 | 53.2 | 47.5 |
| Massachusetts win chance | 32% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Miami (OH) −2.5 ★ Over 47.5
Spread: 5.2 pts better than Vegas for Miami (OH) (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 6.7 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Massachusetts +2.5 ☆ Over 47.5
Spread: 12.0 pts better than Vegas for Massachusetts. Total: 5.7 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Miami (OH) by 7.735%
Miami (OH) by 14+
34%
Miami (OH) by 1–13
23%
Massachusetts by 1–13
9%
Massachusetts by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Miami (OH) | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.011 #68 | Offense EPA / play | −0.093 #102 |
| +0.120 #103 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.112 #98 |
| −3.9% #95 | Offense success rate | −5.0% #106 |
| +6.5% #117 | Defense success rate allowed | +8.1% #126 |
| −0.119 #111 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.080 #97 |
| +0.159 #22 | Passing EPA / play | −0.055 #82 |
| +0.115 #103 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.056 #73 |
| +0.152 #103 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.149 #102 |
| −5.3 #90 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.9 #118 |
| +8.1 #115 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +9.5 #122 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.8% #71 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.4% #77 |
| +5.5% #108 | Passing-down success allowed | +7.2% #120 |
| −0.20 #76 | Points per drive | −0.80 #98 |
| +1.32 #111 | Points per drive allowed | +1.96 #131 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.30 #102 | Line yards per rush | −0.29 #100 |
| +0.04 #59 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.46 #121 |
| −0.9% #45 | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.9% #110 |
| +0.3% #53 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.3% #117 |
| +0.8% #88 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.8% #85 |
| −3.2% #115 | Havoc created | −4.1% #128 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.119 #114 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.057 #96 |
| +0.234 #8 | Passing explosiveness | +0.034 #53 |
| −0.40 #106 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.53 #121 |
| −0.063 #59 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.006 #78 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #103 | Run rate | 55% #34 |
| −12.6 #100 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −27.0 #138 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Miami (OH) | Season to date | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-0 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 26.8 / 29.2 | Points for / against | 31.8 / 17.8 |
| -2.4 | Avg margin | +14.0 |
| -4.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.8 |
| 50.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 48.0 |
Miami (OH): last 5 games
| L20-24 | |
| W24-21 | |
| L31-35 | |
| W45-7 | |
| L14-59 |
Massachusetts: last 5 games
| L14-38 | |
| W35-6 | |
| W36-14 | |
| W37-10 | |
| W37-21 |
