Final
Sat, Oct 3, 1:00 PM ET
UB Stadium · 63° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (WMU–Buffalo) | 34–17 | – | 20–17 |
| Spread | WMU −17.0 | WMU −13.5 | WMU −3 |
| Total | 51.0 | 46.5 | 37 |
| Buffalo win chance | 14% | – | – |
Line moved from WMU −16.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ WMU −13.5 Lost★ Over 46.5 Lost
Spread: 3.5 pts better than Vegas for Western Michigan (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 4.5 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around WMU by 17.057%
Western Michigan by 14+
28%
Western Michigan by 1–13
12%
Buffalo by 1–13
3%
Buffalo by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| WMU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.051 #87 | Offense EPA / play | −0.199 #131 |
| +0.033 #71 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.202 #135 |
| −1.4% #86 | Offense success rate | −10.3% #137 |
| +3.1% #92 | Defense success rate allowed | +3.4% #96 |
| +0.048 #62 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.154 #131 |
| −0.166 #114 | Passing EPA / play | −0.250 #126 |
| +0.024 #71 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.150 #128 |
| +0.038 #66 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.267 #130 |
| −5.9 #96 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.7 #119 |
| −2.4 #39 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +15.5 #138 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.5% #88 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −7.0% #112 |
| +7.3% #129 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.3% #97 |
| −0.60 #99 | Points per drive | −1.41 #131 |
| +0.15 #75 | Points per drive allowed | +1.43 #131 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.07 #104 | Line yards per rush | −0.46 #132 |
| +0.09 #85 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.55 #137 |
| −0.8% #87 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.6% #120 |
| −1.5% #98 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.1% #122 |
| −3.2% #30 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.7% #114 |
| −3.0% #117 | Havoc created | −2.1% #106 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.034 #57 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.117 #29 |
| −0.108 #133 | Passing explosiveness | −0.020 #114 |
| −0.32 #92 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.43 #113 |
| −0.120 #25 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.324 #138 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 66% #7 | Run rate | 53% #97 |
| −7.1 #51 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −19.3 #129 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| WMU | Season to date | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 2-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 23.2 / 19.4 | Points for / against | 20.4 / 30.6 |
| +3.8 | Avg margin | -10.2 |
| +0.7 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.1 |
| 54.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 70.2 |
Western Michigan: last 4 games
| L7-32 | |
| W28-21 | |
| W49-14 | |
| L12-13 |
Buffalo: last 4 games
| W31-28 | |
| L13-55 | |
| L20-33 | |
| W21-17 |
