Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 9:00 PM ET
Sun Bowl · 66° · wind 14 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (San José State–UTEP) | 29–21 | – |
| Spread | San José State −7.5 | No line |
| Total | 50.4 | n/a |
| UTEP win chance | 32% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around San José State by 7.534%
San José State by 14+
34%
San José State by 1–13
23%
UTEP by 1–13
9%
UTEP by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| San José State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.136 #116 | Offense EPA / play | −0.249 #136 |
| +0.076 #77 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.209 #132 |
| −8.2% #131 | Offense success rate | −7.3% #124 |
| +4.7% #95 | Defense success rate allowed | +10.0% #134 |
| −0.213 #132 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.187 #125 |
| −0.030 #74 | Passing EPA / play | −0.252 #129 |
| +0.111 #101 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.126 #107 |
| +0.051 #70 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.367 #137 |
| −8.2 #109 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −10.0 #125 |
| +6.3 #98 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +16.1 #137 |
| Situational | ||
| −9.3% #128 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −8.5% #125 |
| −0.9% #45 | Passing-down success allowed | +9.8% #133 |
| −1.33 #125 | Points per drive | −1.11 #112 |
| +0.91 #94 | Points per drive allowed | +3.28 #138 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.37 #111 | Line yards per rush | −0.48 #121 |
| +0.32 #105 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.26 #92 |
| +5.7% #125 | Runs stuffed at the line | +7.4% #131 |
| −5.5% #126 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.6% #49 |
| +1.7% #110 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +4.8% #136 |
| −2.2% #104 | Havoc created | −3.3% #118 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.099 #106 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.011 #71 |
| −0.017 #86 | Passing explosiveness | −0.000 #75 |
| −0.71 #131 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.38 #102 |
| −0.078 #53 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.060 #60 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #109 | Run rate | 56% #26 |
| −12.8 #102 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −5.9 #44 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| San José State | Season to date | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Away | 0-3 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 22.6 / 25.0 | Points for / against | 16.4 / 41.4 |
| -2.4 | Avg margin | -25.0 |
| +2.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -8.5 |
| 65.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 36.6 |
San José State: last 5 games
| W20-16 | |
| L10-26 | |
| W30-20 | |
| W27-21 | |
| L26-42 |
UTEP: last 5 games
| L7-61 | |
| L7-33 | |
| L17-52 | |
| W51-10 | |
| L0-51 |
