Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET
War Memorial Stadium · 39° · wind 22 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (NIU–Wyoming) | 20–21 | – |
| Spread | Wyoming −1.4 | No line |
| Total | 40.9 | n/a |
| Wyoming win chance | 54% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Wyoming by 1.416%
Northern Illinois by 14+
30%
Northern Illinois by 1–13
33%
Wyoming by 1–13
21%
Wyoming by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| NIU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.199 #130 | Offense EPA / play | −0.164 #122 |
| +0.187 #127 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.147 #109 |
| −5.7% #113 | Offense success rate | −6.6% #119 |
| +5.8% #105 | Defense success rate allowed | +9.0% #132 |
| −0.126 #115 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.094 #103 |
| −0.238 #126 | Passing EPA / play | −0.284 #132 |
| +0.149 #116 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.132 #109 |
| +0.157 #106 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.145 #99 |
| −10.2 #127 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −17.0 #138 |
| +8.6 #118 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.0 #85 |
| Situational | ||
| −11.0% #135 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −6.3% #111 |
| +7.2% #122 | Passing-down success allowed | +5.3% #105 |
| −1.10 #111 | Points per drive | −2.00 #138 |
| +1.59 #120 | Points per drive allowed | +0.93 #96 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.44 #119 | Line yards per rush | −0.13 #75 |
| +0.13 #74 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.53 #126 |
| +4.2% #118 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.6% #82 |
| −1.3% #76 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.6% #121 |
| +2.5% #117 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.8% #112 |
| −1.2% #78 | Havoc created | −3.4% #121 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.032 #82 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.106 #109 |
| −0.223 #131 | Passing explosiveness | −0.083 #108 |
| −0.35 #99 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.53 #122 |
| −0.053 #62 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.145 #27 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% #89 | Run rate | 54% #48 |
| −0.9 #17 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −17.8 #123 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| NIU | Season to date | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-3 |
| 1-3 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 13.8 / 36.2 | Points for / against | 14.2 / 22.0 |
| -22.5 | Avg margin | -7.8 |
| -3.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -8.3 |
| 53.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.0 |
Northern Illinois: last 4 games
| L14-35 | |
| L17-42 | |
| L24-28 | |
| L0-40 |
Wyoming: last 5 games
| L0-28 | |
| W27-10 | |
| L10-24 | |
| W21-13 | |
| L13-35 |
