Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 PM ET
Fargodome · Indoors
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Nevada–NDSU) | 18–31 | – |
| Spread | NDSU −12.8 | No line |
| Total | 48.5 | n/a |
| North Dakota State win chance | 79% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around NDSU by 12.84%
Nevada by 14+
16%
Nevada by 1–13
32%
North Dakota State by 1–13
47%
North Dakota State by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Nevada | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.165 #123 | Offense EPA / play | −0.069 #91 |
| +0.182 #124 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.045 #29 |
| −6.6% #120 | Offense success rate | −5.3% #109 |
| +5.8% #106 | Defense success rate allowed | +3.2% #79 |
| −0.051 #84 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.087 #101 |
| −0.294 #133 | Passing EPA / play | −0.035 #76 |
| +0.139 #113 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.102 #19 |
| +0.255 #131 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.004 #56 |
| −8.7 #114 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −3.5 #83 |
| +8.0 #113 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.8 #60 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.9% #86 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.5% #91 |
| +5.8% #112 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.2% #24 |
| −1.22 #121 | Points per drive | −0.14 #71 |
| +1.23 #109 | Points per drive allowed | +0.73 #81 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.24 #96 | Line yards per rush | −0.37 #110 |
| +0.50 #124 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.25 #88 |
| +4.1% #115 | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.1% #101 |
| −5.0% #124 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.9% #85 |
| +2.4% #115 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.0% #91 |
| −3.9% #125 | Havoc created | −1.0% #73 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.013 #64 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.115 #22 |
| +0.097 #34 | Passing explosiveness | +0.168 #23 |
| +0.00 #55 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.46 #113 |
| +0.025 #92 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.001 #81 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% #28 | Run rate | 56% #27 |
| −18.0 #126 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −23.9 #137 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Nevada | Season to date | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 5-0 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 1-2 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 2-0 |
| 2-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 27.2 / 24.2 | Points for / against | 33.6 / 9.8 |
| +3.0 | Avg margin | +23.8 |
| +4.8 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.1 |
| 60.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.8 |
Nevada: last 4 games
| L33-36 | |
| L20-27 | |
| L7-20 | |
| W49-14 |
North Dakota State: last 5 games
| W28-0 | |
| W31-10 | |
| W38-32 | |
| W38-0 | |
| W33-7 |
