Final
Sat, Oct 3, 4:00 PM ET
University Stadium (NM) · 75° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UTEP–New Mexico) | 14–38 | – | 7–61 |
| Spread | New Mexico −23.8 | New Mexico −23.5 | New Mexico −54 |
| Total | 51.9 | 47.5 | 68 |
| New Mexico win chance | 93% | – | – |
Line moved from New Mexico −21 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ New Mexico −23.5 Won★ Over 47.5 Won
Spread: 0.3 pts better than Vegas for New Mexico (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.4 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around New Mexico by 23.81%
UTEP by 14+
6%
UTEP by 1–13
20%
New Mexico by 1–13
73%
New Mexico by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UTEP | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.218 #133 | Offense EPA / play | −0.032 #76 |
| +0.196 #129 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.011 #46 |
| −5.8% #113 | Offense success rate | −4.0% #100 |
| +9.4% #135 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.5% #47 |
| −0.208 #130 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.082 #28 |
| −0.120 #99 | Passing EPA / play | −0.182 #120 |
| +0.166 #121 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.017 #57 |
| +0.315 #133 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.090 #86 |
| −9.0 #120 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.5 #56 |
| +14.0 #136 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.2 #52 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.6% #121 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.8% #73 |
| +12.0% #137 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.1% #44 |
| −0.82 #104 | Points per drive | +0.05 #59 |
| +2.91 #138 | Points per drive allowed | +0.44 #62 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.54 #126 | Line yards per rush | −0.01 #51 |
| +0.31 #100 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.41 #12 |
| +7.9% #132 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.4% #31 |
| +1.6% #37 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.4% #43 |
| +4.1% #134 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.1% #43 |
| −3.5% #123 | Havoc created | +2.7% #17 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.053 #95 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.223 #2 |
| +0.001 #70 | Passing explosiveness | +0.216 #14 |
| −0.30 #92 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.21 #82 |
| −0.088 #42 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.067 #106 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #33 | Run rate | 58% #15 |
| −8.6 #53 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −18.9 #126 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UTEP | Season to date | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 1-1 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 5-0 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 16.4 / 41.4 | Points for / against | 43.4 / 10.6 |
| -25.0 | Avg margin | +32.8 |
| -8.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +19.3 |
| 36.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 50.0 |
UTEP: last 4 games
| L7-33 | |
| L17-52 | |
| W51-10 | |
| L0-51 |
New Mexico: last 4 games
| W42-18 | |
| L6-14 | |
| W70-7 | |
| W38-7 |
