Final
Sat, Oct 3, 11:59 PM ET
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · 79° · wind 11 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (San José State–Hawai'i) | 23–29 | – | 20–16 |
| Spread | Hawai'i −5.8 | Hawai'i −2.5 | San José State −4 |
| Total | 51.5 | 51.5 | 36 |
| Hawai'i win chance | 64% | – | – |
Line moved from Hawai'i −5.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Hawai'i −2.5 Lost
Spread: 3.3 pts better than Vegas for Hawai'i (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Hawai'i by 5.811%
San José State by 14+
25%
San José State by 1–13
34%
Hawai'i by 1–13
30%
Hawai'i by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| San José State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.161 #123 | Offense EPA / play | −0.152 #122 |
| +0.087 #86 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.194 #128 |
| −8.0% #131 | Offense success rate | −7.1% #124 |
| +5.2% #98 | Defense success rate allowed | +9.0% #134 |
| −0.202 #129 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.166 #123 |
| −0.105 #93 | Passing EPA / play | −0.170 #116 |
| +0.148 #114 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.251 #137 |
| +0.041 #68 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.034 #64 |
| −8.2 #115 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −9.9 #125 |
| +7.9 #112 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.9 #113 |
| Situational | ||
| −9.2% #131 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.2% #102 |
| −0.3% #49 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.6% #89 |
| −1.40 #126 | Points per drive | −1.42 #127 |
| +1.00 #99 | Points per drive allowed | +1.12 #107 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.24 #96 | Line yards per rush | −0.30 #104 |
| +0.29 #99 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.59 #133 |
| +4.4% #116 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.9% #100 |
| −5.6% #129 | Opponent runs stuffed | −7.7% #135 |
| +2.2% #112 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.5% #118 |
| −2.7% #108 | Havoc created | −3.2% #118 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.016 #71 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.034 #83 |
| −0.032 #85 | Passing explosiveness | −0.185 #129 |
| −0.64 #132 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.05 #61 |
| −0.163 #23 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.096 #40 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #112 | Run rate | 36% #138 |
| −12.5 #93 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −14.1 #109 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| San José State | Season to date | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-3 |
| 1-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 2-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 22.6 / 25.0 | Points for / against | 17.6 / 24.8 |
| -2.4 | Avg margin | -7.2 |
| +2.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -8.3 |
| 65.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 72.4 |
San José State: last 4 games
| L10-26 | |
| W30-20 | |
| W27-21 | |
| L26-42 |
Hawai'i: last 4 games
| L10-27 | |
| W29-19 | |
| L6-21 | |
| L27-37 |
