Final
Sat, Sep 26, 10:30 PM ET
Mackay Stadium · 68° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Air Force–Nevada) | 24–26 | – | 36–33 |
| Spread | Nevada −2.5 | Air Force −4.5 | Air Force −3 |
| Total | 49.7 | 50.5 | 69 |
| Nevada win chance | 56% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Nevada +4.5 Won★ Under 50.5 Lost
Spread: 7.0 pts better than Vegas for Nevada (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.8 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Nevada by 2.515%
Air Force by 14+
29%
Air Force by 1–13
33%
Nevada by 1–13
23%
Nevada by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Air Force | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.020 #73 | Offense EPA / play | −0.190 #132 |
| +0.161 #119 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.140 #107 |
| −1.4% #71 | Offense success rate | −6.2% #120 |
| +7.1% #124 | Defense success rate allowed | +5.4% #104 |
| +0.015 #53 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.083 #98 |
| −0.124 #105 | Passing EPA / play | −0.316 #134 |
| +0.169 #123 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.082 #95 |
| +0.141 #102 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.209 #121 |
| −7.6 #110 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −10.3 #132 |
| +9.3 #122 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +3.6 #85 |
| Situational | ||
| −8.2% #126 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.3% #88 |
| +6.3% #118 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.3% #92 |
| −0.87 #106 | Points per drive | −1.31 #129 |
| +1.42 #119 | Points per drive allowed | +0.93 #95 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.07 #61 | Line yards per rush | −0.20 #82 |
| +0.41 #117 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.38 #115 |
| −1.8% #33 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.9% #103 |
| −4.1% #113 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.9% #97 |
| −4.3% #6 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.9% #91 |
| −4.9% #135 | Havoc created | −3.2% #120 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.124 #113 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.013 #69 |
| +0.015 #71 | Passing explosiveness | +0.055 #51 |
| −0.97 #138 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.12 #67 |
| +0.048 #100 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.031 #65 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 77% #2 | Run rate | 58% #23 |
| −25.3 #136 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −16.2 #106 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Air Force | Season to date | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 1-3 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-2 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 29.0 / 20.0 | Points for / against | 27.2 / 24.2 |
| +9.0 | Avg margin | +3.0 |
| -0.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +4.8 |
| 71.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.2 |
Air Force: last 2 games
| L32-38 | |
| W34-0 |
Nevada: last 3 games
| L20-27 | |
| L7-20 | |
| W49-14 |
