Beaver projection
Thu, Oct 15, 7:30 PM ET
Protective Stadium · 78° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (East Carolina–UAB) | 28–22 | – |
| Spread | East Carolina −5.7 | No line |
| Total | 49.9 | n/a |
| UAB win chance | 36% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around East Carolina by 5.730%
East Carolina by 14+
34%
East Carolina by 1–13
25%
UAB by 1–13
11%
UAB by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| East Carolina | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.013 #69 | Offense EPA / play | −0.151 #118 |
| +0.006 #53 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.093 #86 |
| −0.9% #70 | Offense success rate | −3.8% #95 |
| −0.7% #40 | Defense success rate allowed | +7.7% #123 |
| −0.034 #77 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.025 #74 |
| −0.034 #75 | Passing EPA / play | −0.308 #134 |
| +0.071 #83 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.134 #112 |
| −0.084 #25 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.004 #49 |
| −5.5 #95 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −9.2 #121 |
| +1.3 #66 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.8 #112 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.7% #114 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.0% #64 |
| +4.4% #97 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.4% #78 |
| −0.36 #83 | Points per drive | −1.16 #116 |
| +0.79 #85 | Points per drive allowed | +1.33 #110 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.40 #114 | Line yards per rush | −0.10 #68 |
| −0.07 #40 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.69 #136 |
| +2.8% #96 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.0% #41 |
| +4.3% #12 | Opponent runs stuffed | −6.5% #133 |
| +0.8% #84 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.2% #113 |
| +0.2% #53 | Havoc created | −2.4% #106 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.096 #31 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.039 #52 |
| −0.001 #76 | Passing explosiveness | +0.032 #56 |
| +0.82 #6 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.50 #116 |
| +0.027 #94 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.131 #30 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #68 | Run rate | 55% #33 |
| −9.4 #74 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −17.8 #124 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| East Carolina | Season to date | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-3 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 1-3 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 24.0 / 25.2 | Points for / against | 24.0 / 23.4 |
| -1.2 | Avg margin | +0.6 |
| -4.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.4 |
| 49.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.8 |
East Carolina: last 4 games
| W42-9 | |
| W20-17 | |
| L24-27 | |
| L10-48 |
