Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 4:00 PM ET
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium · 69° · wind 13 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Rice–East Carolina) | 17–31 | 19–29 | – |
| Spread | East Carolina −14.6 | East Carolina −9.7 | East Carolina −10 |
| Total | 48.2 | 48.1 | 47.5 |
| East Carolina win chance | 82% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ East Carolina −10 ★ Over 47.5
Spread: 4.6 pts better than Vegas for East Carolina (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 0.7 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Rice +10 ☆ Over 47.5
Spread: 0.3 pts better than Vegas for Rice. Total: 0.6 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around East Carolina by 14.64%
Rice by 14+
14%
Rice by 1–13
31%
East Carolina by 1–13
51%
East Carolina by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Rice | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.114 #111 | Offense EPA / play | −0.012 #69 |
| +0.113 #100 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.006 #53 |
| −4.9% #105 | Offense success rate | −0.9% #71 |
| +4.0% #89 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.7% #40 |
| −0.068 #93 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.034 #76 |
| −0.267 #131 | Passing EPA / play | −0.034 #75 |
| +0.198 #129 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.071 #84 |
| −0.060 #30 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.084 #24 |
| −8.7 #117 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.5 #93 |
| +5.4 #93 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.3 #65 |
| Situational | ||
| −8.5% #124 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −6.7% #114 |
| +6.3% #113 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.5% #97 |
| −0.96 #107 | Points per drive | −0.36 #83 |
| +1.22 #107 | Points per drive allowed | +0.79 #85 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.29 #99 | Line yards per rush | −0.40 #114 |
| +0.29 #100 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.07 #42 |
| +3.0% #99 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.8% #95 |
| −3.3% #104 | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.3% #12 |
| +1.0% #89 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.8% #82 |
| −1.6% #89 | Havoc created | +0.2% #53 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.123 #18 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.096 #31 |
| +0.253 #7 | Passing explosiveness | −0.000 #75 |
| +0.23 #29 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.82 #6 |
| +0.002 #81 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.027 #94 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 73% #3 | Run rate | 52% #68 |
| −3.1 #32 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −9.4 #74 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Rice | Season to date | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 1-2 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-3 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 1-3 |
| 18.0 / 27.4 | Points for / against | 24.0 / 25.2 |
| -9.4 | Avg margin | -1.2 |
| +1.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -4.5 |
| 57.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 49.5 |
Rice: last 5 games
| L14-16 | |
| L24-38 | |
| L21-28 | |
| L0-52 | |
| W31-3 |
East Carolina: last 4 games
| W42-9 | |
| W20-17 | |
| L24-27 | |
| L10-48 |
