Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET
DATCU Stadium · 87° · wind 6 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Charlotte–North Texas) | 17–47 | 16–46 | – |
| Spread | North Texas −30.3 | North Texas −29.4 | North Texas −28.5 |
| Total | 64.3 | 62.2 | 57.5 |
| North Texas win chance | 97% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ North Texas −28.5 ★ Over 57.5
Spread: 1.8 pts better than Vegas for North Texas (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 6.8 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ North Texas −28.5 ☆ Over 57.5
Spread: 0.9 pts better than Vegas for North Texas. Total: 4.7 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around North Texas by 30.30%
Charlotte by 14+
3%
Charlotte by 1–13
13%
North Texas by 1–13
84%
North Texas by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Charlotte | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.276 #138 | Offense EPA / play | +0.153 #15 |
| +0.148 #112 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.112 #99 |
| −11.0% #138 | Offense success rate | +3.7% #26 |
| +10.4% #135 | Defense success rate allowed | +7.4% #121 |
| −0.330 #137 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.069 #30 |
| −0.216 #123 | Passing EPA / play | +0.213 #12 |
| +0.096 #95 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.003 #47 |
| +0.175 #117 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.323 #135 |
| −14.5 #135 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +9.4 #14 |
| +15.6 #136 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +8.7 #120 |
| Situational | ||
| −9.7% #131 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.7% #38 |
| +12.3% #137 | Passing-down success allowed | +5.1% #103 |
| −1.56 #132 | Points per drive | +0.56 #34 |
| +2.05 #133 | Points per drive allowed | +1.02 #101 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.87 #136 | Line yards per rush | −0.04 #56 |
| +0.30 #103 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.08 #39 |
| +9.6% #135 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.6% #49 |
| +1.0% #42 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.2% #72 |
| +4.4% #135 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.6% #20 |
| −3.3% #116 | Havoc created | −1.5% #86 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.281 #136 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.233 #2 |
| −0.132 #121 | Passing explosiveness | +0.040 #51 |
| +0.10 #42 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.26 #28 |
| −0.188 #14 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.023 #91 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 47% #117 | Run rate | 50% #97 |
| −9.2 #72 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −5.9 #43 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Charlotte | Season to date | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-3 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 17.2 / 40.6 | Points for / against | 40.6 / 33.0 |
| -23.4 | Avg margin | +7.6 |
| -9.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +8.4 |
| 51.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.4 |
Charlotte: last 5 games
| L8-59 | |
| L7-34 | |
| L21-26 | |
| L9-41 | |
| L41-43 |
North Texas: last 5 games
| W45-44 | |
| W63-14 | |
| L35-49 | |
| W44-6 | |
| L16-52 |
