Beaver projection
Thu, Oct 8, 7:30 PM ET
Alamodome · Indoors
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (South Florida–UTSA) | 21–30 | 19–26 | – |
| Spread | UTSA −8.6 | UTSA −7.0 | UTSA −7 |
| Total | 50.5 | 44.4 | 49.5 |
| UTSA win chance | 71% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UTSA −7 ★ Over 49.5
Spread: 1.6 pts better than Vegas for UTSA (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.0 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Under 49.5
Total: 5.1 pts below Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around UTSA by 8.68%
South Florida by 14+
22%
South Florida by 1–13
34%
UTSA by 1–13
37%
UTSA by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| South Florida | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.062 #87 | Offense EPA / play | +0.005 #61 |
| +0.063 #75 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.014 #44 |
| +0.2% #56 | Offense success rate | −1.7% #76 |
| +4.5% #94 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.1% #61 |
| +0.012 #56 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.038 #44 |
| −0.166 #111 | Passing EPA / play | −0.073 #87 |
| −0.078 #22 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.060 #75 |
| +0.232 #126 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.038 #35 |
| −4.1 #87 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.2 #58 |
| +1.0 #63 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.8 #79 |
| Situational | ||
| +0.9% #52 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −8.5% #123 |
| +1.4% #77 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.2% #70 |
| −0.62 #95 | Points per drive | −0.16 #73 |
| +0.65 #76 | Points per drive allowed | +0.48 #64 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.24 #97 | Line yards per rush | −0.31 #104 |
| +0.03 #56 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.22 #87 |
| +3.3% #101 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.6% #93 |
| +2.6% #24 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.6% #109 |
| +0.5% #77 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.3% #40 |
| +0.0% #56 | Havoc created | −2.4% #107 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.039 #84 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.041 #85 |
| −0.233 #132 | Passing explosiveness | −0.098 #112 |
| −0.23 #85 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.03 #50 |
| −0.012 #77 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.066 #56 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #52 | Run rate | 52% #63 |
| −18.6 #127 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −7.3 #58 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| South Florida | Season to date | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-0 |
| 2-0 | Away | 2-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 26.6 / 14.6 | Points for / against | 31.4 / 26.2 |
| +12.0 | Avg margin | +5.2 |
| -2.4 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.5 |
| 57.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 61.0 |
South Florida: last 5 games
| L13-17 | |
| W14-6 | |
| W59-17 | |
| W28-24 | |
| W19-9 |
UTSA: last 5 games
| W16-14 | |
| W59-45 | |
| L6-30 | |
| W31-26 | |
| W45-16 |
