Final
Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET
Protective Stadium · 89° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Samford–UAB) | 11–44 | – | 14–33 |
| Spread | UAB −32.4 | UAB −30.5 | UAB −19 |
| Total | 55.4 | 54.5 | 47 |
| UAB win chance | 98% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UAB −30.5 Lost★ Over 54.5 Lost
Spread: 1.9 pts better than Vegas for UAB (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.9 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around UAB by 32.40%
Samford by 14+
2%
Samford by 1–13
10%
UAB by 1–13
87%
UAB by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Samford | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.340 | Offense EPA / play | −0.141 #120 |
| +0.295 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.061 #81 |
| −17.8% | Offense success rate | −3.0% #101 |
| +9.1% | Defense success rate allowed | +5.1% #117 |
| −0.353 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.044 #64 |
| −0.286 | Passing EPA / play | −0.350 #136 |
| +0.283 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.024 #70 |
| +0.196 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.022 #61 |
| −21.9 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.7 #118 |
| +16.7 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.4 #94 |
| Situational | ||
| −13.6% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.6% #57 |
| +2.9% | Passing-down success allowed | +0.7% #77 |
| −2.59 | Points per drive | −1.00 #112 |
| +2.21 | Points per drive allowed | +0.58 #102 |
| Trenches | ||
| −1.36 | Line yards per rush | +0.16 #53 |
| +0.73 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.37 #120 |
| +14.9% | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.1% #40 |
| −4.0% | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.5% #116 |
| +6.2% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.3% #107 |
| −3.7% | Havoc created | −1.1% #84 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.077 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.099 #33 |
| +0.121 | Passing explosiveness | +0.118 #65 |
| −1.27 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.42 #111 |
| +0.259 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.103 #28 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 44% | Run rate | 59% #35 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −9.2 #69 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Samford | Season to date | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 14.0 / 33.0 | Points for / against | 24.0 / 23.4 |
| -19.0 | Avg margin | +0.6 |
| +11.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.4 |
| 58.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.8 |
Samford: last games
No games yet.
