Final
Sat, Oct 3, 7:30 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium · 83° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Temple–South Florida) | 25–35 | – | 17–13 |
| Spread | South Florida −9.7 | South Florida −5.5 | Temple −4 |
| Total | 60.0 | 50.5 | 30 |
| South Florida win chance | 72% | – | – |
Line moved from South Florida −6.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ South Florida −5.5 Lost★ Over 50.5 Lost
Spread: 4.2 pts better than Vegas for South Florida (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 9.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around South Florida by 9.77%
Temple by 14+
20%
Temple by 1–13
33%
South Florida by 1–13
39%
South Florida by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Temple | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.044 #44 | Offense EPA / play | −0.017 #74 |
| +0.166 #126 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.062 #82 |
| −0.1% #72 | Offense success rate | +2.7% #43 |
| +6.4% #127 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.8% #112 |
| +0.093 #45 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.125 #32 |
| −0.030 #68 | Passing EPA / play | −0.154 #107 |
| +0.148 #126 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.099 #17 |
| +0.156 #106 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.246 #129 |
| −2.9 #82 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.9 #75 |
| +5.1 #99 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.4 #71 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.1% #53 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.5% #44 |
| +5.0% #117 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.3% #85 |
| −0.36 #85 | Points per drive | −0.36 #84 |
| +0.48 #99 | Points per drive allowed | +0.29 #85 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.23 #45 | Line yards per rush | +0.01 #92 |
| +0.05 #75 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.16 #42 |
| −2.0% #66 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.0% #98 |
| −5.0% #130 | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.6% #18 |
| −3.9% #24 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.6% #87 |
| −4.3% #134 | Havoc created | +0.8% #39 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.000 #74 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.070 #46 |
| +0.303 #17 | Passing explosiveness | −0.198 #137 |
| +0.21 #25 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.32 #93 |
| −0.085 #30 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.073 #35 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 65% #8 | Run rate | 57% #46 |
| −5.6 #44 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −19.6 #132 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Temple | Season to date | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 1-2 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 2-0 |
| 4-0-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 25.8 / 24.8 | Points for / against | 26.6 / 14.6 |
| +1.0 | Avg margin | +12.0 |
| +5.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -2.4 |
| 55.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.0 |
Temple: last 4 games
| L17-21 | |
| L48-49 | |
| L9-27 | |
| W38-14 |
South Florida: last 4 games
| W14-6 | |
| W59-17 | |
| W28-24 | |
| W19-9 |
