Final
Sat, Oct 3, 7:00 PM ET
Rice Stadium · 83° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UTSA–Rice) | 35–22 | – | 16–14 |
| Spread | UTSA −13.1 | UTSA −11.5 | UTSA −2 |
| Total | 57.9 | 56.5 | 30 |
| Rice win chance | 21% | – | – |
Line moved from UTSA −12.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UTSA −11.5 Lost★ Over 56.5 Lost
Spread: 1.6 pts better than Vegas for UTSA (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around UTSA by 13.148%
UTSA by 14+
31%
UTSA by 1–13
16%
Rice by 1–13
5%
Rice by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UTSA | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.039 #43 | Offense EPA / play | −0.108 #108 |
| −0.009 #47 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.145 #109 |
| +0.4% #57 | Offense success rate | −4.0% #99 |
| +2.5% #71 | Defense success rate allowed | +5.8% #104 |
| +0.085 #26 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.022 #71 |
| −0.037 #78 | Passing EPA / play | −0.317 #134 |
| +0.102 #99 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.232 #134 |
| −0.088 #26 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.024 #47 |
| +4.3 #32 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −7.7 #111 |
| +4.0 #86 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.3 #108 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.2% #118 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −7.7% #122 |
| +2.6% #86 | Passing-down success allowed | +6.1% #112 |
| +0.17 #52 | Points per drive | −0.88 #108 |
| +0.55 #70 | Points per drive allowed | +1.34 #113 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.20 #86 | Line yards per rush | −0.09 #63 |
| +0.33 #106 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.34 #108 |
| +0.8% #67 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.4% #61 |
| −5.5% #127 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.5% #114 |
| −1.7% #36 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.2% #59 |
| −2.8% #111 | Havoc created | −1.3% #89 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.040 #87 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.137 #15 |
| −0.162 #126 | Passing explosiveness | +0.118 #28 |
| +0.20 #28 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.23 #24 |
| −0.205 #10 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.077 #51 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% #82 | Run rate | 72% #4 |
| −4.2 #29 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −3.5 #24 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UTSA | Season to date | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 2-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 31.4 / 26.2 | Points for / against | 18.0 / 27.4 |
| +5.2 | Avg margin | -9.4 |
| +0.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.5 |
| 61.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.2 |
UTSA: last 4 games
| W59-45 | |
| L6-30 | |
| W31-26 | |
| W45-16 |
Rice: last 4 games
| L24-38 | |
| L21-28 | |
| L0-52 | |
| W31-3 |
