Final
Sat, Sep 26, 5:00 PM ET
Doyt L. Perry Stadium · 65° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (South Florida–Bowling Green) | 37–12 | – | 14–6 |
| Spread | South Florida −24.4 | South Florida −17.5 | South Florida −8 |
| Total | 49.4 | 48.5 | 20 |
| Bowling Green win chance | 6% | – | – |
Line moved from South Florida −15.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ South Florida −17.5 Lost★ Over 48.5 Lost
Spread: 6.9 pts better than Vegas for South Florida (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around South Florida by 24.474%
South Florida by 14+
19%
South Florida by 1–13
5%
Bowling Green by 1–13
1%
Bowling Green by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| South Florida | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.044 #42 | Offense EPA / play | −0.286 #138 |
| +0.094 #90 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.172 #125 |
| +3.1% #29 | Offense success rate | −9.8% #136 |
| +7.1% #125 | Defense success rate allowed | +8.3% #131 |
| +0.126 #13 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.367 #138 |
| +0.003 #61 | Passing EPA / play | −0.162 #113 |
| −0.074 #24 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.176 #125 |
| +0.291 #133 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.176 #113 |
| +1.7 #49 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −14.6 #137 |
| +2.2 #73 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +12.2 #131 |
| Situational | ||
| +3.3% #30 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −12.3% #137 |
| +2.9% #88 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.8% #60 |
| +0.00 #60 | Points per drive | −1.59 #136 |
| +0.74 #85 | Points per drive allowed | +2.47 #136 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.02 #52 | Line yards per rush | −0.85 #135 |
| −0.11 #37 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.63 #136 |
| +0.9% #72 | Runs stuffed at the line | +7.2% #131 |
| +3.0% #25 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.0% #68 |
| −1.7% #34 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +3.1% #121 |
| −0.3% #65 | Havoc created | −3.8% #131 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.062 #36 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.377 #138 |
| −0.210 #130 | Passing explosiveness | +0.017 #69 |
| +0.02 #48 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.82 #136 |
| −0.045 #57 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.009 #79 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% #86 | Run rate | 56% #30 |
| −18.2 #120 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −2.4 #24 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| South Florida | Season to date | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 0-2 |
| 2-0 | Away | 1-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 26.6 / 14.6 | Points for / against | 11.4 / 33.0 |
| +12.0 | Avg margin | -21.6 |
| -2.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -5.7 |
| 57.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 48.6 |
South Florida: last 3 games
| W59-17 | |
| W28-24 | |
| W19-9 |
Bowling Green: last 3 games
| L7-55 | |
| L7-56 | |
| L13-20 |
