Final
Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM ET
Yulman Stadium · 82° · wind 2 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Southern Miss–Tulane) | 20–30 | – | 21–24 |
| Spread | Tulane −10.4 | Tulane −17.5 | Tulane −3 |
| Total | 50.6 | 52.5 | 45 |
| Tulane win chance | 74% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Southern Miss +17.5 Won★ Under 52.5 Won
Spread: 7.1 pts better than Vegas for Southern Miss (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 1.9 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Tulane by 10.46%
Southern Miss by 14+
19%
Southern Miss by 1–13
33%
Tulane by 1–13
41%
Tulane by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Southern Miss | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Tulane |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.147 #119 | Offense EPA / play | −0.022 #78 |
| +0.090 #96 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.032 #74 |
| −1.9% #87 | Offense success rate | −4.8% #116 |
| +3.0% #97 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.9% #70 |
| +0.042 #64 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.043 #63 |
| −0.301 #132 | Passing EPA / play | −0.097 #92 |
| +0.144 #124 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.046 #85 |
| +0.145 #104 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.019 #61 |
| −7.7 #111 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.6 #105 |
| +7.8 #121 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.0 #39 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.4% #113 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −7.6% #119 |
| +7.3% #129 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.2% #100 |
| −0.54 #91 | Points per drive | −0.77 #105 |
| +1.03 #125 | Points per drive allowed | −0.50 #29 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.23 #43 | Line yards per rush | −0.14 #116 |
| +0.34 #121 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.05 #74 |
| −4.9% #23 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.3% #103 |
| −2.5% #108 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.7% #81 |
| +0.2% #101 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.2% #129 |
| −3.0% #121 | Havoc created | −3.3% #128 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.180 #135 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.140 #19 |
| +0.007 #103 | Passing explosiveness | +0.195 #35 |
| −0.77 #135 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.57 #9 |
| +0.153 #122 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.098 #30 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #109 | Run rate | 56% #71 |
| −13.7 #97 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +1.9 #13 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Southern Miss | Season to date | Tulane |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 1-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 26.4 / 34.6 | Points for / against | 18.8 / 23.2 |
| -8.2 | Avg margin | -4.5 |
| +0.3 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.8 |
| 57.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 61.2 |
Southern Miss: last 3 games
| L20-48 | |
| L8-43 | |
| W49-3 |
Tulane: last 3 games
| L20-31 | |
| W28-24 | |
| L3-17 |
