Final
Fri, Sep 25, 7:00 PM ET
Protective Stadium · 74° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Navy–UAB) | 27–28 | – | 20–24 |
| Spread | UAB −1.4 | Navy −6.5 | UAB −4 |
| Total | 54.9 | 50.5 | 44 |
| UAB win chance | 53% | – | – |
Line moved from Navy −11.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UAB +6.5 Won★ Over 50.5 Lost
Spread: 7.9 pts better than Vegas for UAB (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 4.4 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around UAB by 1.417%
Navy by 14+
30%
Navy by 1–13
32%
UAB by 1–13
22%
UAB by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Navy | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.027 #80 | Offense EPA / play | −0.151 #122 |
| +0.158 #129 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.083 #94 |
| +0.9% #58 | Offense success rate | −2.3% #92 |
| +2.8% #95 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.4% #110 |
| +0.139 #23 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.023 #72 |
| −0.389 #136 | Passing EPA / play | −0.346 #135 |
| +0.043 #84 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.031 #72 |
| +0.369 #137 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.029 #67 |
| −5.6 #96 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.4 #117 |
| +7.4 #116 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.5 #98 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.4% #118 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.9% #61 |
| +2.8% #96 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.7% #88 |
| −0.55 #92 | Points per drive | −0.95 #112 |
| +0.83 #116 | Points per drive allowed | +0.59 #106 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.39 #18 | Line yards per rush | +0.27 #39 |
| +0.01 #67 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.37 #124 |
| −5.2% #18 | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.2% #38 |
| +2.0% #45 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.8% #109 |
| −3.0% #36 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.5% #107 |
| −2.5% #114 | Havoc created | −2.7% #117 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.121 #23 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.024 #85 |
| +0.076 #81 | Passing explosiveness | +0.154 #52 |
| +0.33 #17 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.49 #119 |
| +0.217 #131 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.209 #7 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 80% #3 | Run rate | 59% #34 |
| −25.7 #137 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −8.3 #52 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Navy | Season to date | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-2 |
| 0-4 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 25.2 / 22.8 | Points for / against | 24.0 / 23.4 |
| +2.5 | Avg margin | +0.6 |
| -7.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.4 |
| 58.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.8 |
Navy: last 2 games
| L30-38 | |
| W42-15 |
