Final
Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET
Rice Stadium · 87° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (WMU–Rice) | 27–18 | – | 28–21 |
| Spread | WMU −9.3 | WMU −8.5 | WMU −7 |
| Total | 44.4 | 43.5 | 49 |
| Rice win chance | 28% | – | – |
Line moved from WMU −11.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ WMU −8.5 Lost★ Over 43.5 Won
Spread: 0.8 pts better than Vegas for Western Michigan (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.9 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around WMU by 9.338%
Western Michigan by 14+
34%
Western Michigan by 1–13
21%
Rice by 1–13
7%
Rice by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| WMU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.005 #65 | Offense EPA / play | −0.156 #127 |
| −0.020 #44 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.101 #101 |
| −2.3% #91 | Offense success rate | −5.9% #128 |
| +2.3% #89 | Defense success rate allowed | +5.2% #125 |
| +0.055 #52 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.031 #99 |
| −0.080 #91 | Passing EPA / play | −0.328 #135 |
| −0.017 #49 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.128 #118 |
| −0.037 #39 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.013 #60 |
| −3.2 #83 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −11.3 #135 |
| −4.0 #25 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +3.2 #89 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.3% #111 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −9.4% #129 |
| −0.4% #60 | Passing-down success allowed | +2.9% #96 |
| −0.35 #79 | Points per drive | −1.12 #120 |
| −0.19 #46 | Points per drive allowed | +0.83 #117 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.07 #104 | Line yards per rush | +0.10 #70 |
| +0.07 #78 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.31 #119 |
| −1.1% #82 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.4% #76 |
| −2.9% #112 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.4% #126 |
| −2.9% #37 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.8% #57 |
| −1.7% #94 | Havoc created | −1.3% #88 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.083 #34 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.150 #15 |
| +0.046 #88 | Passing explosiveness | +0.286 #20 |
| −0.33 #93 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.21 #76 |
| −0.069 #33 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.008 #61 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 67% #6 | Run rate | 75% #4 |
| −11.2 #73 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −3.7 #36 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| WMU | Season to date | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 2-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 23.2 / 19.4 | Points for / against | 18.0 / 27.4 |
| +3.8 | Avg margin | -9.4 |
| +0.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.5 |
| 54.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.2 |
Rice: last 2 games
| L0-52 | |
| W31-3 |
