Final
Sat, Sep 19, 6:00 PM ET
FAU Stadium · 79° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (FIU–FAU) | 30–29 | – | 10–16 |
| Spread | FIU −0.5 | FAU −5.5 | FAU −6 |
| Total | 59.1 | 62.5 | 26 |
| Florida Atlantic win chance | 49% | – | – |
Line moved from FAU −7.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ FIU +5.5 Lost★ Under 62.5 Won
Spread: 6.0 pts better than Vegas for Florida International (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.4 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around FIU by 0.520%
Florida International by 14+
31%
Florida International by 1–13
30%
Florida Atlantic by 1–13
19%
Florida Atlantic by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| FIU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.114 #115 | Offense EPA / play | −0.035 #80 |
| −0.009 #48 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.135 #122 |
| −3.6% #108 | Offense success rate | −0.6% #73 |
| −0.8% #50 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.8% #93 |
| −0.116 #131 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.005 #86 |
| −0.153 #114 | Passing EPA / play | −0.076 #89 |
| −0.044 #38 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.186 #133 |
| +0.042 #72 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.085 #86 |
| −6.2 #104 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −0.7 #60 |
| +1.9 #77 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +14.0 #137 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.1% #103 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.9% #44 |
| −3.9% #27 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.7% #55 |
| −0.97 #115 | Points per drive | −0.35 #78 |
| +0.16 #74 | Points per drive allowed | +1.22 #127 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.09 #107 | Line yards per rush | −0.04 #98 |
| −0.25 #28 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.10 #85 |
| +0.3% #99 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.2% #65 |
| +1.4% #49 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.3% #74 |
| −1.2% #77 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.2% #104 |
| −0.7% #69 | Havoc created | +0.1% #57 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.127 #122 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.080 #38 |
| +0.029 #98 | Passing explosiveness | +0.036 #95 |
| −0.37 #100 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.68 #134 |
| −0.020 #56 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.238 #135 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #104 | Run rate | 49% #123 |
| −7.8 #55 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +0.4 #19 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| FIU | Season to date | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-2 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 1-3 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 18.0 / 14.5 | Points for / against | 37.2 / 26.6 |
| +3.5 | Avg margin | +10.6 |
| -3.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.9 |
| 73.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.6 |
Florida International: last 2 games
| W33-20 | |
| L9-19 |
