Beaver projection
Thu, Oct 15, 8:00 PM ET
Bobcat Stadium (TX) · 82° · wind 16 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Colorado State–Texas State) | 26–43 | – |
| Spread | Texas State −17.1 | No line |
| Total | 69.5 | n/a |
| Texas State win chance | 85% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Texas State by 17.13%
Colorado State by 14+
12%
Colorado State by 1–13
27%
Texas State by 1–13
57%
Texas State by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Colorado State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.051 #37 | Offense EPA / play | +0.128 #19 |
| +0.203 #130 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.095 #87 |
| −0.7% #68 | Offense success rate | +4.5% #17 |
| +11.7% #138 | Defense success rate allowed | +5.7% #101 |
| +0.076 #29 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.098 #20 |
| +0.031 #56 | Passing EPA / play | +0.184 #17 |
| +0.193 #127 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.014 #40 |
| +0.348 #136 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.167 #112 |
| +2.9 #44 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.5 #36 |
| +15.5 #135 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.6 #111 |
| Situational | ||
| +1.6% #48 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +14.0% #2 |
| +13.8% #138 | Passing-down success allowed | +5.5% #110 |
| −0.06 #70 | Points per drive | +0.60 #29 |
| +1.99 #132 | Points per drive allowed | +1.54 #119 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.44 #118 | Line yards per rush | +0.07 #39 |
| +0.67 #134 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.02 #46 |
| +2.1% #89 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.6% #50 |
| −5.8% #131 | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.6% #11 |
| +1.7% #108 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.0% #47 |
| −0.8% #70 | Havoc created | −1.9% #96 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.220 #3 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.078 #35 |
| +0.071 #41 | Passing explosiveness | +0.171 #21 |
| +0.58 #10 | Open-field yards per rush | +1.09 #2 |
| +0.054 #100 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.122 #32 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 46% #122 | Run rate | 58% #16 |
| −8.8 #66 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −2.8 #27 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Colorado State | Season to date | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-2 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 5-0 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 37.4 / 38.6 | Points for / against | 34.8 / 33.2 |
| -1.2 | Avg margin | +1.6 |
| +2.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.5 |
| 58.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 67.4 |
Colorado State: last 5 games
| L26-56 | |
| L45-59 | |
| L23-41 | |
| W58-24 | |
| W35-13 |
Texas State: last 5 games
| L29-31 | |
| W63-10 | |
| W49-35 | |
| L26-31 | |
| L7-59 |
