Beaver projection
Fri, Oct 9, 9:00 PM ET
Maverik Stadium · 66° · wind 9 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (WSU–Utah State) | 19–25 | 14–25 | – |
| Spread | Utah State −5.6 | Utah State −10.9 | Utah State −5.5 |
| Total | 44.6 | 39.1 | 44.5 |
| Utah State win chance | 64% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Utah State −5.5 ★ Over 44.5
Spread: 0.1 pts better than Vegas for Utah State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.1 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Utah State −5.5 ☆ Under 44.5
Spread: 5.4 pts better than Vegas for Utah State. Total: 5.4 pts below Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Utah State by 5.610%
Washington State by 14+
26%
Washington State by 1–13
34%
Utah State by 1–13
30%
Utah State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| WSU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Utah State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.198 #129 | Offense EPA / play | −0.149 #118 |
| +0.051 #70 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.045 #68 |
| −7.9% #130 | Offense success rate | −5.8% #114 |
| +3.5% #85 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.6% #76 |
| −0.149 #118 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.098 #104 |
| −0.239 #127 | Passing EPA / play | −0.196 #119 |
| +0.073 #85 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.049 #68 |
| +0.022 #64 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.043 #70 |
| −8.5 #113 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.6 #114 |
| +2.7 #78 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.5 #67 |
| Situational | ||
| −11.0% #136 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.2% #55 |
| +1.2% #71 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.3% #54 |
| −1.17 #119 | Points per drive | −1.23 #122 |
| +0.38 #57 | Points per drive allowed | +0.44 #61 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.34 #107 | Line yards per rush | −0.14 #78 |
| +0.17 #80 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.05 #61 |
| +4.7% #119 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.8% #94 |
| −1.6% #81 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.1% #87 |
| +4.0% #131 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.5% #115 |
| −2.4% #109 | Havoc created | −3.3% #117 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.110 #23 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.021 #60 |
| −0.238 #135 | Passing explosiveness | +0.140 #25 |
| −0.20 #81 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.03 #58 |
| +0.060 #102 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.193 #12 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% #96 | Run rate | 49% #105 |
| −6.5 #49 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −1.8 #20 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| WSU | Season to date | Utah State |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-4 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 1-2 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-3 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 19.0 / 25.0 | Points for / against | 14.0 / 25.0 |
| -6.0 | Avg margin | -11.0 |
| -3.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.2 |
| 56.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.4 |
Washington State: last 5 games
| L6-26 | |
| L24-34 | |
| W48-7 | |
| L7-34 | |
| L10-24 |
Utah State: last 5 games
| L18-37 | |
| W21-10 | |
| L0-33 | |
| L14-16 | |
| L17-29 |
