Final
Sat, Oct 3, 9:30 PM ET
Gesa Field · 64° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Fresno State–WSU) | 22–23 | – | 26–6 |
| Spread | WSU −1.3 | WSU −2.5 | Fresno State −20 |
| Total | 45.5 | 44.5 | 32 |
| Washington State win chance | 53% | – | – |
Line moved from WSU −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Fresno State +2.5 Won★ Over 44.5 Lost
Spread: 1.2 pts better than Vegas for Fresno State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.0 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around WSU by 1.316%
Fresno State by 14+
30%
Fresno State by 1–13
32%
Washington State by 1–13
21%
Washington State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Fresno State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | WSU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.104 #104 | Offense EPA / play | −0.142 #117 |
| +0.027 #64 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.038 #68 |
| −6.9% #121 | Offense success rate | −5.3% #107 |
| +5.8% #105 | Defense success rate allowed | +3.0% #80 |
| −0.187 #126 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.110 #108 |
| +0.087 #37 | Passing EPA / play | −0.178 #119 |
| +0.031 #67 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.099 #97 |
| +0.034 #65 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.004 #50 |
| −4.4 #90 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.9 #106 |
| −0.5 #50 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.4 #76 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.5% #70 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −9.9% #133 |
| +2.2% #80 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.6% #61 |
| −0.52 #92 | Points per drive | −0.96 #109 |
| +0.75 #84 | Points per drive allowed | +0.41 #59 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.59 #128 | Line yards per rush | −0.30 #106 |
| +0.18 #80 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.26 #93 |
| +10.0% #136 | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.5% #106 |
| −1.5% #77 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.9% #84 |
| +0.2% #71 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +4.2% #135 |
| +0.5% #46 | Havoc created | −2.2% #104 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.015 #70 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.135 #16 |
| +0.111 #30 | Passing explosiveness | −0.239 #134 |
| +0.05 #45 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.04 #59 |
| −0.131 #28 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.128 #119 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #56 | Run rate | 52% #72 |
| −12.5 #94 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −8.6 #54 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Fresno State | Season to date | WSU |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 2-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 27.8 / 16.4 | Points for / against | 19.0 / 25.0 |
| +11.4 | Avg margin | -6.0 |
| +9.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.7 |
| 55.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.2 |
Fresno State: last 4 games
| W38-24 | |
| W26-10 | |
| W49-3 | |
| L0-39 |
Washington State: last 4 games
| L24-34 | |
| W48-7 | |
| L7-34 | |
| L10-24 |
