Final
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
Notre Dame Stadium · 83° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Rice–Notre Dame) | 5–48 | – | 0–52 |
| Spread | Notre Dame −42.5 | Notre Dame −44.5 | Notre Dame −52 |
| Total | 52.9 | 54.5 | 52 |
| Notre Dame win chance | 100% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Rice +44.5 Lost★ Under 54.5 Won
Spread: 2.0 pts better than Vegas for Rice (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.6 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Notre Dame by 42.50%
Rice by 14+
0%
Rice by 1–13
3%
Notre Dame by 1–13
96%
Notre Dame by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Rice | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.113 #116 | Offense EPA / play | +0.202 #3 |
| +0.063 #86 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.165 #4 |
| −3.3% #113 | Offense success rate | +7.5% #6 |
| +2.3% #90 | Defense success rate allowed | −6.9% #7 |
| +0.017 #80 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.175 #11 |
| −0.310 #137 | Passing EPA / play | +0.205 #8 |
| +0.111 #118 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.128 #10 |
| −0.038 #34 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.191 #3 |
| −10.3 #135 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +14.3 #1 |
| +3.2 #90 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −10.2 #6 |
| Situational | ||
| −8.0% #124 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.5% #35 |
| +1.4% #80 | Passing-down success allowed | −6.5% #8 |
| −1.00 #123 | Points per drive | +2.00 #4 |
| +0.71 #115 | Points per drive allowed | −1.15 #6 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.14 #63 | Line yards per rush | +0.26 #39 |
| +0.33 #123 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.40 #11 |
| −1.4% #78 | Runs stuffed at the line | −6.6% #2 |
| −2.4% #114 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.5% #27 |
| −2.5% #37 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −4.2% #10 |
| −0.8% #81 | Havoc created | +2.9% #6 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.012 #67 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.069 #40 |
| +0.500 #1 | Passing explosiveness | −0.044 #131 |
| −0.21 #75 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.14 #29 |
| +0.024 #73 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.009 #65 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 73% #4 | Run rate | 57% #51 |
| −33.2 #118 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +2.2 #35 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Rice | Season to date | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 5-0 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 1-2 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-0 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 18.0 / 27.4 | Points for / against | 41.2 / 11.8 |
| -9.4 | Avg margin | +29.4 |
| +1.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.9 |
| 57.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.2 |
Rice: last 1 games
| W31-3 |
Notre Dame: last 1 games
| W41-13 |
