Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 AM ET
Rose Bowl · 59° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Wisconsin–UCLA) | 21–32 | – |
| Spread | UCLA −10.7 | No line |
| Total | 53.3 | n/a |
| UCLA win chance | 75% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around UCLA by 10.76%
Wisconsin by 14+
19%
Wisconsin by 1–13
33%
UCLA by 1–13
42%
UCLA by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Wisconsin | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.020 #53 | Offense EPA / play | +0.087 #28 |
| −0.091 #19 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.058 #25 |
| −2.8% #90 | Offense success rate | +4.0% #21 |
| −3.5% #17 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.5% #31 |
| +0.097 #22 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.243 #1 |
| +0.030 #57 | Passing EPA / play | −0.126 #102 |
| +0.030 #57 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.028 #36 |
| −0.209 #9 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.129 #19 |
| +2.3 #48 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +9.7 #12 |
| −6.1 #18 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.4 #38 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.4% #68 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.6% #54 |
| −7.1% #4 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.1% #32 |
| +0.27 #52 | Points per drive | +0.66 #26 |
| −0.59 #10 | Points per drive allowed | −0.12 #30 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.04 #47 | Line yards per rush | +0.58 #2 |
| +0.11 #69 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.23 #19 |
| −4.0% #10 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.0% #18 |
| −5.5% #127 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.1% #27 |
| −1.2% #42 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.2% #43 |
| −1.5% #88 | Havoc created | +1.1% #40 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.251 #1 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.105 #27 |
| +0.190 #16 | Passing explosiveness | −0.058 #96 |
| −0.08 #65 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.94 #4 |
| −0.231 #5 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.146 #125 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #42 | Run rate | 56% #29 |
| −3.0 #30 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −6.7 #51 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Wisconsin | Season to date | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-0 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 1-0 | Away | 2-0 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-1 |
| 31.6 / 16.6 | Points for / against | 44.8 / 18.8 |
| +15.0 | Avg margin | +26.0 |
| +6.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +18.0 |
| 55.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.2 |
Wisconsin: last 5 games
| W31-3 | |
| W24-20 | |
| W54-10 | |
| W36-9 | |
| L13-41 |
UCLA: last 4 games
| W54-3 | |
| W52-38 | |
| W28-10 | |
| W45-24 |
