Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 AM ET
Autzen Stadium · 42° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Nebraska–Oregon) | 22–37 | – |
| Spread | Oregon −15.5 | Oregon −21.5 |
| Total | 59.0 | 51.5 |
| Oregon win chance | 83% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Nebraska +21.5 ★ Over 51.5
Spread: 6.0 pts better than Vegas for Nebraska (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 7.5 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Oregon by 15.53%
Nebraska by 14+
14%
Nebraska by 1–13
29%
Oregon by 1–13
54%
Oregon by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Nebraska | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.139 #17 | Offense EPA / play | +0.169 #11 |
| −0.042 #30 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.102 #12 |
| +3.8% #25 | Offense success rate | +4.1% #20 |
| −2.5% #26 | Defense success rate allowed | −5.1% #10 |
| +0.184 #6 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.081 #27 |
| +0.073 #40 | Passing EPA / play | +0.202 #15 |
| +0.048 #69 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.004 #48 |
| −0.151 #15 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.252 #4 |
| +8.5 #16 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +14.9 #5 |
| −2.9 #34 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.3 #22 |
| Situational | ||
| +6.7% #13 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.2% #30 |
| −6.1% #5 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.4% #22 |
| +0.92 #22 | Points per drive | +2.26 #6 |
| +0.08 #41 | Points per drive allowed | −0.51 #12 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.27 #15 | Line yards per rush | +0.12 #29 |
| +0.06 #62 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.21 #23 |
| −2.4% #27 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.8% #22 |
| −1.4% #77 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.7% #67 |
| −1.7% #35 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.2% #14 |
| +1.6% #30 | Havoc created | +3.2% #14 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.201 #4 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.048 #48 |
| +0.007 #66 | Passing explosiveness | +0.181 #20 |
| +0.36 #19 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.18 #76 |
| +0.004 #83 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.093 #44 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #56 | Run rate | 49% #100 |
| −12.6 #100 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −6.4 #48 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Nebraska | Season to date | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 3-1 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 4-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 1-0 | Away | 1-1 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 4-0 |
| 43.6 / 14.2 | Points for / against | 47.5 / 23.2 |
| +29.4 | Avg margin | +24.2 |
| +8.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.5 |
| 62.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.0 |
Nebraska: last 5 games
| W48-23 | |
| W31-13 | |
| W34-7 | |
| W56-7 | |
| W49-21 |
Oregon: last 4 games
| W41-27 | |
| W84-0 | |
| L31-39 | |
| W34-27 |
