Final
Sat, Oct 3, 4:15 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL) · 71° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Purdue–Illinois) | 27–39 | – | 24–17 |
| Spread | Illinois −11.6 | Illinois −9.5 | Purdue −7 |
| Total | 65.4 | 62.5 | 41 |
| Illinois win chance | 76% | – | – |
Line moved from Illinois −10 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Illinois −9.5 Lost★ Over 62.5 Lost
Spread: 2.1 pts better than Vegas for Illinois (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Illinois by 11.66%
Purdue by 14+
18%
Purdue by 1–13
32%
Illinois by 1–13
44%
Illinois by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Purdue | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.108 #23 | Offense EPA / play | +0.126 #20 |
| +0.188 #126 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.151 #114 |
| +3.5% #27 | Offense success rate | +5.6% #14 |
| +7.5% #124 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.5% #91 |
| +0.020 #54 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.126 #14 |
| +0.206 #11 | Passing EPA / play | +0.165 #20 |
| +0.167 #122 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.077 #86 |
| +0.187 #116 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.199 #119 |
| +2.4 #45 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +5.0 #29 |
| +8.7 #119 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.9 #64 |
| Situational | ||
| +2.6% #38 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +6.6% #16 |
| +9.8% #133 | Passing-down success allowed | +7.2% #127 |
| +0.40 #38 | Points per drive | +0.72 #28 |
| +1.98 #131 | Points per drive allowed | +0.77 #87 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.04 #44 | Line yards per rush | +0.06 #42 |
| +0.31 #101 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.02 #57 |
| −2.4% #27 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.9% #21 |
| −3.1% #102 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.7% #82 |
| −1.8% #33 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.3% #15 |
| −1.8% #98 | Havoc created | −1.7% #97 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.045 #92 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.117 #23 |
| −0.018 #79 | Passing explosiveness | −0.004 #72 |
| −0.31 #95 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.51 #10 |
| +0.085 #111 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.107 #34 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #107 | Run rate | 49% #100 |
| +1.9 #9 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −2.0 #19 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Purdue | Season to date | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 1-2 | Home | 2-2 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 30.4 / 35.0 | Points for / against | 30.6 / 26.0 |
| -4.6 | Avg margin | +4.6 |
| -1.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -5.4 |
| 59.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.6 |
Purdue: last 4 games
| L10-49 | |
| L38-52 | |
| L36-38 | |
| W44-19 |
Illinois: last 4 games
| L19-42 | |
| W48-10 | |
| L27-31 | |
| W42-23 |
