Final
Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM ET
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · 82° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Oregon–USC) | 33–32 | – | 41–27 |
| Spread | Oregon −1.0 | Oregon −3.5 | Oregon −14 |
| Total | 65.2 | 60.5 | 68 |
| USC win chance | 47% | – | – |
Line moved from Oregon −5.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ USC +3.5 Lost★ Over 60.5 Won
Spread: 2.5 pts better than Vegas for USC (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.7 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Oregon by 1.022%
Oregon by 14+
31%
Oregon by 1–13
29%
USC by 1–13
18%
USC by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Oregon | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.098 #23 | Offense EPA / play | +0.183 #10 |
| −0.090 #11 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.038 #67 |
| +4.2% #23 | Offense success rate | +9.9% #3 |
| −3.8% #14 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.2% #59 |
| +0.114 #16 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.015 #69 |
| +0.005 #60 | Passing EPA / play | +0.336 #3 |
| +0.003 #51 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.044 #70 |
| −0.207 #7 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.109 #93 |
| +13.1 #6 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +10.6 #10 |
| −2.5 #36 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.5 #60 |
| Situational | ||
| +2.4% #40 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +9.0% #6 |
| −8.2% #2 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.1% #98 |
| +2.19 #5 | Points per drive | +1.80 #10 |
| −0.30 #21 | Points per drive allowed | +0.45 #65 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.39 #7 | Line yards per rush | +0.25 #16 |
| −0.14 #27 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.02 #46 |
| −5.3% #3 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.6% #52 |
| −1.0% #70 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.2% #75 |
| −2.4% #21 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −4.9% #3 |
| +1.5% #30 | Havoc created | −3.0% #117 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.065 #33 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.160 #125 |
| +0.117 #30 | Passing explosiveness | +0.017 #68 |
| −0.09 #62 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.33 #100 |
| −0.092 #44 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.106 #120 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #100 | Run rate | 53% #60 |
| −14.5 #93 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −9.6 #54 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Oregon | Season to date | USC |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 5-1 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 4-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 2-2 | Against the spread | 1-5 |
| 4-0 | Over/under | 4-2 |
| 47.5 / 23.2 | Points for / against | 37.3 / 25.5 |
| +24.2 | Avg margin | +11.8 |
| -3.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.2 |
| 58.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.0 |
Oregon: last 3 games
| W84-0 | |
| L31-39 | |
| W34-27 |
USC: last 4 games
| W42-35 | |
| W49-30 | |
| W39-0 | |
| W42-26 |
