Final
Sat, Sep 26, 5:00 PM ET
Beaver Stadium · 62° · wind 13 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Wisconsin–Penn State) | 16–28 | – | 24–20 |
| Spread | Penn State −12.7 | Penn State −9.5 | Wisconsin −4 |
| Total | 44.2 | 43.5 | 44 |
| Penn State win chance | 79% | – | – |
Line moved from Penn State −11.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Penn State −9.5 Lost★ Over 43.5 Won
Spread: 3.2 pts better than Vegas for Penn State (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.7 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Penn State by 12.74%
Wisconsin by 14+
16%
Wisconsin by 1–13
33%
Penn State by 1–13
47%
Penn State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Wisconsin | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.002 #65 | Offense EPA / play | +0.116 #21 |
| +0.021 #65 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.091 #13 |
| −0.9% #79 | Offense success rate | +1.9% #48 |
| −0.5% #57 | Defense success rate allowed | −5.5% #11 |
| +0.054 #58 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.023 #71 |
| −0.011 #60 | Passing EPA / play | +0.222 #9 |
| +0.053 #92 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.010 #53 |
| +0.030 #68 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.206 #8 |
| −0.1 #61 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +5.1 #26 |
| −3.7 #32 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −10.1 #7 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.4% #78 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.7% #31 |
| −5.0% #14 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.6% #30 |
| +0.14 #48 | Points per drive | +0.98 #20 |
| −0.52 #27 | Points per drive allowed | −0.84 #10 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.05 #78 | Line yards per rush | −0.11 #111 |
| +0.03 #69 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.35 #19 |
| −2.7% #60 | Runs stuffed at the line | −5.5% #14 |
| −4.7% #126 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.9% #26 |
| −2.1% #57 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −4.6% #13 |
| −1.2% #82 | Havoc created | +1.0% #39 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.089 #32 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.028 #61 |
| +0.149 #53 | Passing explosiveness | +0.231 #27 |
| −0.13 #63 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.05 #42 |
| −0.125 #22 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.383 #1 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #56 | Run rate | 58% #43 |
| −7.6 #47 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −12.5 #85 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Wisconsin | Season to date | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-0 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 31.6 / 16.6 | Points for / against | 32.0 / 16.0 |
| +15.0 | Avg margin | +16.0 |
| +6.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -4.0 |
| 55.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 53.4 |
Wisconsin: last 3 games
| W54-10 | |
| W36-9 | |
| L13-41 |
