Final
Sat, Sep 19, 12:30 PM ET
Camp Randall Stadium · 65° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (EMU–Wisconsin) | 14–33 | – | 10–54 |
| Spread | Wisconsin −19.0 | Wisconsin −23.5 | Wisconsin −44 |
| Total | 46.4 | 43.5 | 64 |
| Wisconsin win chance | 89% | – | – |
Line moved from Wisconsin −24.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ EMU +23.5 Lost★ Over 43.5 Won
Spread: 4.5 pts better than Vegas for Eastern Michigan (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 2.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Wisconsin by 19.02%
Eastern Michigan by 14+
10%
Eastern Michigan by 1–13
26%
Wisconsin by 1–13
63%
Wisconsin by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| EMU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.169 #130 | Offense EPA / play | −0.038 #82 |
| +0.126 #118 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.032 #73 |
| −5.9% #126 | Offense success rate | −2.7% #96 |
| +4.6% #119 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.6% #63 |
| −0.085 #122 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.093 #35 |
| −0.220 #127 | Passing EPA / play | −0.124 #104 |
| +0.136 #122 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.043 #77 |
| +0.115 #97 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.035 #69 |
| −11.0 #134 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −4.8 #97 |
| +6.7 #117 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.0 #26 |
| Situational | ||
| −9.7% #130 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −6.6% #113 |
| +4.8% #121 | Passing-down success allowed | −7.5% #5 |
| −1.61 #136 | Points per drive | −0.62 #96 |
| +0.62 #105 | Points per drive allowed | −0.68 #17 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.13 #111 | Line yards per rush | +0.07 #76 |
| +0.09 #82 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.09 #83 |
| −1.2% #80 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.3% #63 |
| −0.2% #72 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.8% #130 |
| +0.6% #115 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.9% #84 |
| +0.1% #56 | Havoc created | −2.9% #122 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.025 #67 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.132 #19 |
| −0.071 #123 | Passing explosiveness | +0.150 #54 |
| −0.22 #79 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.17 #30 |
| +0.055 #90 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.120 #23 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #114 | Run rate | 58% #41 |
| −11.1 #72 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −2.5 #32 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| EMU | Season to date | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-2 | Away | 1-0 |
| 3-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-4 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 22.2 / 25.0 | Points for / against | 31.6 / 16.6 |
| -2.8 | Avg margin | +15.0 |
| -1.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.0 |
| 60.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.8 |
Eastern Michigan: last 3 games
| L7-35 | |
| L21-27 | |
| W28-17 |
Wisconsin: last 2 games
| W36-9 | |
| L13-41 |
