Final
Sat, Sep 12, 11:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · 72° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Louisiana–USC) | 14–41 | – | 30–49 |
| Spread | USC −27.7 | USC −30.5 | USC −19 |
| Total | 55.2 | 58.5 | 79 |
| USC win chance | 96% | – | – |
Line moved from USC −28.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Louisiana +30.5 Won★ Under 58.5 Lost
Spread: 2.8 pts better than Vegas for Louisiana (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.3 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around USC by 27.70%
Louisiana by 14+
4%
Louisiana by 1–13
16%
USC by 1–13
80%
USC by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Louisiana | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.091 #110 | Offense EPA / play | +0.182 #6 |
| +0.080 #84 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.053 #21 |
| −3.4% #100 | Offense success rate | +12.6% #1 |
| +8.8% #135 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.7% #27 |
| +0.030 #43 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.062 #90 |
| −0.145 #114 | Passing EPA / play | +0.386 #2 |
| +0.045 #73 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.084 #15 |
| +0.152 #112 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.048 #77 |
| −4.0 #92 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +8.8 #16 |
| +5.5 #96 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.7 #19 |
| Situational | ||
| +1.2% #40 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +12.3% #1 |
| +8.5% #133 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.8% #38 |
| −0.79 #104 | Points per drive | +1.71 #12 |
| +1.17 #103 | Points per drive allowed | −0.24 #22 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.21 #88 | Line yards per rush | +0.22 #15 |
| +0.35 #112 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.18 #25 |
| +3.4% #107 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.1% #57 |
| −0.8% #60 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.1% #21 |
| +2.1% #117 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.7% #11 |
| −0.6% #74 | Havoc created | +0.3% #49 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.133 #12 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.242 #137 |
| −0.169 #134 | Passing explosiveness | −0.056 #101 |
| +0.03 #40 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.41 #122 |
| −0.113 #31 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.072 #55 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #18 | Run rate | 52% #72 |
| −28.8 #103 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −8.3 #60 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Louisiana | Season to date | USC |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 5-1 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 4-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 3-1-1 | Against the spread | 1-5 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 4-2 |
| 29.2 / 19.4 | Points for / against | 37.3 / 25.5 |
| +9.8 | Avg margin | +11.8 |
| +7.6 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.2 |
| 62.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.0 |
Louisiana: last 1 games
| W38-7 |
USC: last 2 games
| W39-0 | |
| W42-26 |
