Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 AM ET
California Memorial Stadium · 65° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Wake Forest–California) | 32–22 | – |
| Spread | Wake Forest −10.5 | No line |
| Total | 54.0 | n/a |
| California win chance | 26% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Wake Forest by 10.541%
Wake Forest by 14+
33%
Wake Forest by 1–13
19%
California by 1–13
6%
California by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Wake Forest | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | California |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.111 #21 | Offense EPA / play | −0.108 #110 |
| −0.041 #31 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.084 #80 |
| +2.8% #34 | Offense success rate | −4.7% #100 |
| −1.1% #36 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.3% #45 |
| +0.109 #18 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.200 #129 |
| +0.100 #36 | Passing EPA / play | −0.029 #72 |
| −0.049 #30 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.161 #121 |
| −0.077 #27 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.016 #43 |
| +4.9 #32 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −3.7 #85 |
| −3.2 #32 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.6 #95 |
| Situational | ||
| +6.8% #12 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.6% #92 |
| +1.6% #82 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.2% #25 |
| +0.58 #30 | Points per drive | −0.71 #96 |
| −0.26 #23 | Points per drive allowed | +0.59 #72 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.12 #30 | Line yards per rush | −0.31 #104 |
| −0.27 #18 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.27 #94 |
| −0.8% #48 | Runs stuffed at the line | +4.0% #114 |
| +5.3% #7 | Opponent runs stuffed | −5.7% #129 |
| −2.2% #27 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.5% #101 |
| −0.9% #71 | Havoc created | −2.3% #105 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.016 #61 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.022 #77 |
| +0.043 #50 | Passing explosiveness | −0.008 #80 |
| +0.03 #51 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.45 #112 |
| −0.293 #3 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.177 #131 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% #76 | Run rate | 41% #136 |
| −2.0 #21 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.2 #83 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Wake Forest | Season to date | California |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 2-0 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 36.6 / 23.0 | Points for / against | 27.0 / 26.6 |
| +13.6 | Avg margin | +0.4 |
| +11.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -9.2 |
| 60.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 66.6 |
Wake Forest: last 5 games
| W57-3 | |
| W30-27 | |
| L20-33 | |
| W38-36 | |
| W38-16 |
