Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 7:30 PM ET
Scott Stadium · 62° · wind 5 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Syracuse–Virginia) | 21–29 | 22–30 | – |
| Spread | Virginia −8.5 | Virginia −7.9 | Virginia −9.5 |
| Total | 49.8 | 52.6 | 50.5 |
| Virginia win chance | 70% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Syracuse +9.5 ★ Under 50.5
Spread: 1.0 pts better than Vegas for Syracuse (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.7 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Syracuse +9.5 ☆ Over 50.5
Spread: 1.6 pts better than Vegas for Syracuse. Total: 2.1 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Virginia by 8.58%
Syracuse by 14+
22%
Syracuse by 1–13
34%
Virginia by 1–13
36%
Virginia by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Syracuse | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.077 #93 | Offense EPA / play | +0.011 #58 |
| +0.007 #54 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.004 #49 |
| −0.7% #68 | Offense success rate | +0.7% #54 |
| +3.4% #83 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.1% #48 |
| +0.000 #65 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.067 #31 |
| −0.079 #88 | Passing EPA / play | +0.040 #55 |
| +0.093 #92 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.046 #67 |
| −0.156 #14 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.022 #63 |
| −0.1 #65 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.6 #63 |
| +2.8 #80 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.2 #24 |
| Situational | ||
| +2.3% #41 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −7.5% #118 |
| −3.0% #27 | Passing-down success allowed | −7.6% #1 |
| +0.19 #58 | Points per drive | +0.37 #43 |
| +0.69 #78 | Points per drive allowed | −0.17 #27 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.11 #72 | Line yards per rush | +0.31 #13 |
| −0.09 #38 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.36 #112 |
| +1.3% #77 | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.6% #7 |
| +2.7% #22 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.1% #101 |
| −0.1% #64 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.3% #25 |
| +0.3% #49 | Havoc created | −0.1% #59 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.108 #111 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.051 #93 |
| +0.079 #41 | Passing explosiveness | −0.100 #113 |
| −0.19 #76 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.51 #120 |
| −0.170 #20 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.081 #51 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% #91 | Run rate | 54% #40 |
| −12.9 #103 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −9.2 #73 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Syracuse | Season to date | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 34.8 / 23.0 | Points for / against | 33.8 / 18.0 |
| +11.8 | Avg margin | +15.8 |
| +2.9 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.8 |
| 72.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.6 |
Syracuse: last 4 games
| W42-41 | |
| L13-27 | |
| L18-21 | |
| W66-3 |
Virginia: last 5 games
| L7-38 | |
| W42-3 | |
| L27-38 | |
| W59-3 | |
| W34-8 |
