Final
Sat, Oct 3, 7:30 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · 77° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Miami–Clemson) | 32–18 | – | 41–13 |
| Spread | Miami −13.9 | Miami −14 | Miami −28 |
| Total | 50.9 | 49.5 | 54 |
| Clemson win chance | 19% | – | – |
Line moved from Miami −7 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Clemson +14 Lost★ Over 49.5 Won
Spread: 0.1 pts better than Vegas for Clemson (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.4 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Miami by 13.950%
Miami by 14+
31%
Miami by 1–13
15%
Clemson by 1–13
4%
Clemson by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Miami | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.278 #1 | Offense EPA / play | −0.082 #100 |
| −0.095 #15 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.123 #10 |
| +11.2% #2 | Offense success rate | −3.7% #104 |
| −3.8% #25 | Defense success rate allowed | −4.3% #19 |
| +0.166 #17 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.008 #82 |
| +0.402 #1 | Passing EPA / play | −0.102 #89 |
| −0.072 #25 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.066 #89 |
| −0.122 #20 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.267 #2 |
| +13.5 #6 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −0.3 #65 |
| −8.8 #8 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.2 #31 |
| Situational | ||
| +7.9% #7 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.2% #83 |
| −3.9% #26 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.5% #86 |
| +2.88 #3 | Points per drive | −0.23 #76 |
| −0.55 #25 | Points per drive allowed | −0.37 #38 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.56 #7 | Line yards per rush | −0.09 #106 |
| −0.41 #16 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.13 #90 |
| −6.2% #13 | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.0% #125 |
| +5.8% #10 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.7% #80 |
| −6.9% #3 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.7% #116 |
| +0.9% #37 | Havoc created | +0.8% #41 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.037 #96 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.008 #79 |
| +0.061 #87 | Passing explosiveness | −0.028 #117 |
| −0.05 #59 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.21 #24 |
| −0.196 #7 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.030 #83 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #106 | Run rate | 54% #95 |
| −18.3 #127 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +1.4 #12 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Miami | Season to date | Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 3-2 |
| 3-0 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 3-0 | Away | 1-1 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 49.6 / 9.8 | Points for / against | 19.4 / 25.8 |
| +39.8 | Avg margin | -6.4 |
| +7.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.8 |
| 48.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.4 |
Miami: last 4 games
| W52-3 | |
| W33-20 | |
| W77-7 | |
| W45-6 |
Clemson: last 4 games
| W24-10 | |
| W28-20 | |
| W22-7 | |
| L10-51 |
