Final
Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET
Carter-Finley Stadium · 68° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Louisville–NC State) | 31–31 | – | 28–31 |
| Spread | Louisville −0.1 | Louisville −5.5 | NC State −3 |
| Total | 61.3 | 56.5 | 59 |
| NC State win chance | 50% | – | – |
Line moved from Louisville −7.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ NC State +5.5 Won★ Over 56.5 Won
Spread: 5.4 pts better than Vegas for NC State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.8 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Louisville by 0.120%
Louisville by 14+
30%
Louisville by 1–13
30%
NC State by 1–13
19%
NC State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Louisville | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.140 #19 | Offense EPA / play | +0.076 #30 |
| −0.016 #53 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.076 #87 |
| +4.7% #24 | Offense success rate | +4.2% #27 |
| −2.7% #37 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.7% #66 |
| +0.128 #30 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.031 #70 |
| +0.154 #20 | Passing EPA / play | +0.142 #23 |
| −0.007 #57 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.027 #44 |
| +0.083 #82 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.172 #113 |
| +7.6 #17 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +6.5 #21 |
| +2.6 #83 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.7 #79 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.5% #87 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +6.3% #14 |
| −4.7% #19 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.9% #58 |
| +0.33 #39 | Points per drive | +1.15 #16 |
| +0.09 #70 | Points per drive allowed | +0.09 #69 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.00 #94 | Line yards per rush | +0.13 #62 |
| +0.25 #112 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.18 #37 |
| −1.4% #74 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.7% #73 |
| −5.8% #134 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.2% #43 |
| −1.3% #71 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.1% #74 |
| −1.4% #93 | Havoc created | −0.3% #61 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.073 #44 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.048 #51 |
| +0.242 #27 | Passing explosiveness | −0.031 #119 |
| +0.42 #13 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.32 #16 |
| +0.281 #136 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.165 #120 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #74 | Run rate | 58% #41 |
| −4.2 #33 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −8.6 #62 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Louisville | Season to date | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-2 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 38.6 / 29.2 | Points for / against | 36.8 / 25.6 |
| +9.4 | Avg margin | +11.2 |
| -1.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +4.5 |
| 61.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.8 |
Louisville: last 4 games
| L27-30 | |
| W41-31 | |
| W59-13 | |
| L38-41 |
NC State: last 4 games
| W41-31 | |
| L31-35 | |
| W73-0 | |
| L8-34 |
