Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 AM ET
Folsom Field · 36° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Utah–Colorado) | 32–14 | – |
| Spread | Utah −18.0 | No line |
| Total | 45.4 | n/a |
| Colorado win chance | 13% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Utah by 18.060%
Utah by 14+
27%
Utah by 1–13
10%
Colorado by 1–13
2%
Colorado by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Utah | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.172 #10 | Offense EPA / play | −0.090 #100 |
| −0.050 #28 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.067 #23 |
| +5.9% #13 | Offense success rate | −2.3% #84 |
| −3.7% #16 | Defense success rate allowed | −3.1% #19 |
| +0.134 #10 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.178 #123 |
| +0.168 #20 | Passing EPA / play | −0.044 #79 |
| +0.000 #46 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.176 #5 |
| −0.137 #17 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.068 #79 |
| +9.8 #11 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.6 #101 |
| −7.8 #9 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.0 #46 |
| Situational | ||
| +11.0% #3 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.2% #58 |
| +1.0% #65 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.2% #30 |
| +1.56 #10 | Points per drive | −0.61 #94 |
| −0.10 #32 | Points per drive allowed | +0.26 #49 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.26 #17 | Line yards per rush | −0.22 #90 |
| −0.07 #42 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.41 #11 |
| +1.3% #77 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.1% #75 |
| +1.7% #34 | Opponent runs stuffed | +8.6% #2 |
| −0.1% #63 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.8% #86 |
| +2.4% #21 | Havoc created | +2.9% #17 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.169 #9 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.230 #134 |
| −0.015 #85 | Passing explosiveness | +0.056 #45 |
| +0.18 #32 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.24 #87 |
| −0.062 #59 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.156 #127 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #67 | Run rate | 51% #79 |
| −10.8 #88 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −1.2 #18 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Utah | Season to date | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| 4-0 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 3-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 1-0 | Away | 1-2 |
| 4-0 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 43.2 / 10.2 | Points for / against | 18.6 / 25.4 |
| +33.0 | Avg margin | -6.8 |
| +11.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -8.1 |
| 49.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 68.2 |
Utah: last 4 games
| W31-17 | |
| W33-0 | |
| W43-10 | |
| W66-14 |
Colorado: last 5 games
| L7-29 | |
| L13-23 | |
| L7-41 | |
| W52-21 | |
| W14-13 |
