Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET
Bill Snyder Family Stadium · 51° · wind 13 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Kansas–Kansas State) | 22–28 | – |
| Spread | Kansas State −5.3 | Kansas State −9.5 |
| Total | 49.7 | 55.5 |
| Kansas State win chance | 63% | – |
Line moved from Kansas State −7.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Kansas +9.5 ★ Under 55.5
Spread: 4.2 pts better than Vegas for Kansas (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 5.8 pts below Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Kansas State by 5.311%
Kansas by 14+
26%
Kansas by 1–13
34%
Kansas State by 1–13
29%
Kansas State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Kansas | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.048 #43 | Offense EPA / play | +0.045 #44 |
| −0.069 #29 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.024 #67 |
| +3.1% #36 | Offense success rate | +2.2% #45 |
| −6.7% #9 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.4% #47 |
| +0.105 #39 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.125 #27 |
| −0.076 #83 | Passing EPA / play | −0.032 #68 |
| −0.092 #22 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.116 #114 |
| +0.060 #74 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.001 #52 |
| +1.4 #54 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.5 #35 |
| −0.2 #62 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.1 #63 |
| Situational | ||
| +0.1% #52 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.2% #24 |
| −6.7% #8 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.9% #104 |
| +0.63 #28 | Points per drive | +1.00 #17 |
| −0.14 #49 | Points per drive allowed | +0.18 #72 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.50 #10 | Line yards per rush | +0.16 #59 |
| −0.61 #6 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.16 #91 |
| −7.6% #2 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.1% #66 |
| +7.8% #5 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.2% #69 |
| −0.6% #84 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −4.1% #19 |
| +2.1% #23 | Havoc created | +2.9% #17 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.042 #60 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.085 #37 |
| +0.216 #32 | Passing explosiveness | +0.050 #98 |
| −0.53 #116 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.67 #7 |
| +0.113 #109 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.033 #82 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 58% #39 | Run rate | 54% #85 |
| −13.4 #109 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −15.6 #118 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Kansas | Season to date | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-2 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 3-1 |
| 36.0 / 17.0 | Points for / against | 40.5 / 15.2 |
| +19.0 | Avg margin | +25.2 |
| +4.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.9 |
| 60.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.5 |
Kansas: last 4 games
| W55-0 | |
| L17-24 | |
| L21-38 | |
| W51-6 |
Kansas State: last 4 games
| L26-31 | |
| W31-20 | |
| W34-7 | |
| W71-3 |
