Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET
Milan Puskar Stadium · 52° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Cincinnati–West Virginia) | 31–32 | – |
| Spread | West Virginia −0.6 | No line |
| Total | 62.6 | n/a |
| West Virginia win chance | 51% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around West Virginia by 0.619%
Cincinnati by 14+
30%
Cincinnati by 1–13
31%
West Virginia by 1–13
21%
West Virginia by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Cincinnati | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.080 #30 | Offense EPA / play | +0.046 #43 |
| +0.112 #100 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.158 #117 |
| +0.5% #54 | Offense success rate | −0.4% #62 |
| +6.1% #111 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.5% #115 |
| +0.064 #34 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.063 #35 |
| +0.042 #52 | Passing EPA / play | +0.056 #46 |
| +0.142 #114 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.027 #56 |
| +0.122 #93 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.235 #128 |
| +1.3 #57 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.6 #35 |
| +2.1 #72 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.0 #106 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.1% #73 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.4% #28 |
| +6.7% #118 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.0% #92 |
| +0.03 #64 | Points per drive | +0.24 #54 |
| +0.71 #79 | Points per drive allowed | +0.72 #80 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.15 #25 | Line yards per rush | −0.04 #57 |
| +0.54 #127 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.01 #51 |
| −2.3% #28 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.5% #54 |
| −3.3% #104 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.1% #30 |
| −2.7% #19 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.0% #45 |
| −0.7% #67 | Havoc created | −1.2% #80 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.172 #8 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.104 #28 |
| −0.037 #90 | Passing explosiveness | +0.559 #1 |
| +0.30 #25 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.30 #24 |
| −0.086 #49 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.121 #34 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #25 | Run rate | 68% #5 |
| −9.2 #71 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −8.4 #65 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Cincinnati | Season to date | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 4-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 5-0 |
| 33.8 / 23.2 | Points for / against | 37.4 / 28.8 |
| +10.6 | Avg margin | +8.6 |
| +1.6 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.5 |
| 57.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.2 |
Cincinnati: last 5 games
| L7-34 | |
| W31-26 | |
| W35-31 | |
| W62-10 | |
| W34-15 |
West Virginia: last 5 games
| L42-45 | |
| L24-41 | |
| W38-27 | |
| W52-7 | |
| W31-24 |
