Final
Sat, Oct 3, 7:30 PM ET
Folsom Field · 74° · wind 12 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Texas Tech–Colorado) | 32–16 | – | 29–7 |
| Spread | Texas Tech −15.8 | Texas Tech −13.5 | Texas Tech −22 |
| Total | 47.9 | 50.5 | 36 |
| Colorado win chance | 16% | – | – |
Line moved from Texas Tech −14.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Texas Tech −13.5 Won★ Under 50.5 Won
Spread: 2.3 pts better than Vegas for Texas Tech (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.6 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Texas Tech by 15.854%
Texas Tech by 14+
30%
Texas Tech by 1–13
13%
Colorado by 1–13
3%
Colorado by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Texas Tech | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.070 #31 | Offense EPA / play | −0.050 #86 |
| −0.093 #16 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.029 #47 |
| +5.5% #17 | Offense success rate | −2.4% #91 |
| −6.6% #9 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.1% #42 |
| +0.139 #25 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.074 #114 |
| +0.125 #27 | Passing EPA / play | −0.044 #76 |
| −0.027 #45 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.148 #14 |
| −0.140 #17 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.152 #99 |
| +5.2 #26 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.0 #98 |
| −5.2 #25 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.6 #59 |
| Situational | ||
| +7.1% #9 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.2% #62 |
| −2.9% #37 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.2% #70 |
| +0.26 #44 | Points per drive | −0.48 #92 |
| −0.71 #19 | Points per drive allowed | −0.02 #61 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.28 #40 | Line yards per rush | +0.07 #75 |
| −0.17 #39 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.45 #15 |
| −1.0% #81 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.4% #60 |
| +1.7% #46 | Opponent runs stuffed | +9.3% #1 |
| +0.3% #106 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.9% #118 |
| +2.1% #25 | Havoc created | +2.2% #24 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.004 #77 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.157 #128 |
| +0.035 #92 | Passing explosiveness | +0.235 #29 |
| −0.07 #61 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.27 #87 |
| +0.022 #75 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.252 #132 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #88 | Run rate | 55% #82 |
| −7.6 #55 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −6.8 #49 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Texas Tech | Season to date | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 2-3 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 3-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 2-0 | Away | 1-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 34.8 / 16.2 | Points for / against | 18.6 / 25.4 |
| +18.6 | Avg margin | -6.8 |
| -6.7 | Avg vs. the spread | -8.1 |
| 63.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 68.2 |
Texas Tech: last 4 games
| W49-14 | |
| W28-26 | |
| W35-24 | |
| W33-10 |
Colorado: last 4 games
| L13-23 | |
| L7-41 | |
| W52-21 | |
| W14-13 |
