Final
Sat, Oct 3, 7:00 PM ET
Amon G. Carter Stadium · 72° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (BYU–TCU) | 28–21 | – | 17–10 |
| Spread | BYU −7.5 | BYU −5.5 | BYU −7 |
| Total | 48.9 | 48.5 | 27 |
| TCU win chance | 32% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ BYU −5.5 Won★ Over 48.5 Lost
Spread: 2.0 pts better than Vegas for BYU (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around BYU by 7.534%
BYU by 14+
34%
BYU by 1–13
23%
TCU by 1–13
9%
TCU by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| BYU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.194 #9 | Offense EPA / play | −0.009 #67 |
| −0.078 #14 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.042 #29 |
| +8.7% #8 | Offense success rate | −1.0% #71 |
| −2.0% #30 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.2% #50 |
| +0.179 #6 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.113 #110 |
| +0.166 #19 | Passing EPA / play | +0.060 #46 |
| −0.008 #44 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.171 #4 |
| −0.096 #23 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.059 #76 |
| +5.3 #26 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.9 #61 |
| −3.7 #27 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.6 #20 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.0% #86 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −7.9% #124 |
| +0.9% #62 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.6% #75 |
| +0.64 #31 | Points per drive | −0.25 #77 |
| +0.24 #44 | Points per drive allowed | −0.20 #23 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.36 #9 | Line yards per rush | −0.47 #121 |
| −0.07 #39 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.03 #46 |
| −3.1% #19 | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.6% #109 |
| +2.4% #29 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.9% #68 |
| −5.4% #2 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.0% #66 |
| +0.1% #54 | Havoc created | −0.5% #66 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.005 #60 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.118 #115 |
| −0.153 #123 | Passing explosiveness | +0.110 #31 |
| −0.07 #65 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.45 #117 |
| −0.167 #20 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.131 #27 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 58% #18 | Run rate | 47% #117 |
| −17.7 #122 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.4 #72 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| BYU | Season to date | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| 4-0 | Record | 2-3 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 2-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 4-0 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 37.2 / 14.2 | Points for / against | 25.4 / 13.4 |
| +23.0 | Avg margin | +12.0 |
| +3.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.7 |
| 51.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.4 |
BYU: last 3 games
| W41-23 | |
| W28-17 | |
| W63-7 |
TCU: last 4 games
| L13-21 | |
| W31-7 | |
| W63-7 | |
| L10-15 |
