Final
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET
Jack Trice Stadium · 68° · wind 14 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Utah–Iowa State) | 30–20 | – | 31–17 |
| Spread | Utah −9.5 | Utah −7.5 | Utah −14 |
| Total | 50.4 | 46.5 | 48 |
| Iowa State win chance | 27% | – | – |
Line moved from Utah −11.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Utah −7.5 Won★ Over 46.5 Won
Spread: 2.0 pts better than Vegas for Utah (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Utah by 9.539%
Utah by 14+
34%
Utah by 1–13
20%
Iowa State by 1–13
7%
Iowa State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Utah | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.149 #15 | Offense EPA / play | +0.029 #50 |
| +0.025 #59 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.030 #36 |
| +4.5% #20 | Offense success rate | −2.0% #80 |
| −3.0% #19 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.1% #45 |
| +0.098 #19 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.062 #28 |
| +0.167 #23 | Passing EPA / play | +0.015 #52 |
| +0.144 #111 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.027 #35 |
| −0.122 #18 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.012 #52 |
| +9.0 #16 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.7 #48 |
| −5.6 #13 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.3 #37 |
| Situational | ||
| +14.5% #1 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −8.6% #128 |
| −2.1% #34 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.3% #20 |
| +1.65 #13 | Points per drive | +0.01 #58 |
| +0.24 #46 | Points per drive allowed | +0.16 #39 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.30 #13 | Line yards per rush | −0.03 #56 |
| +0.21 #82 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.11 #66 |
| −0.0% #60 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.4% #23 |
| −3.9% #108 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.4% #118 |
| −0.1% #64 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.6% #82 |
| +0.8% #42 | Havoc created | +0.1% #60 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.197 #7 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.124 #17 |
| +0.049 #57 | Passing explosiveness | +0.055 #52 |
| −0.02 #54 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.34 #16 |
| −0.013 #75 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.038 #92 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% #84 | Run rate | 58% #17 |
| −17.7 #116 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −15.3 #98 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Utah | Season to date | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| 4-0 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-1 |
| 1-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 4-0 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 43.2 / 10.2 | Points for / against | 33.6 / 21.2 |
| +33.0 | Avg margin | +12.4 |
| +11.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.7 |
| 49.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.6 |
Utah: last 3 games
| W33-0 | |
| W43-10 | |
| W66-14 |
Iowa State: last 3 games
| W55-7 | |
| L13-16 | |
| W38-10 |
